Models
PERSISTENT SYSTEMS LTDPERSISTENTIT - Software
₹3,215per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,215implied FY26 P/E 26.1× · EV/EBITDA 18.3×
Against CMP ₹5,516.00−41.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,490₹4,662
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,245₹6,599
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11,018 |
| PV of terminal value | 38,622 |
| Enterprise value | 49,639 |
| less net debt | 1,075 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 50,714 |
| ÷ 15.78 crore shares | ₹3,215 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,320 | 3,564 | 3,857 | 4,215 | 4,662 |
| 10.50% | 3,064 | 3,267 | 3,507 | 3,794 | 4,145 |
| 11.00% | 2,845 | 3,016 | 3,215 | 3,450 | 3,732 |
| 11.50% | 2,655 | 2,801 | 2,968 | 3,164 | 3,395 |
| 12.00% | 2,490 | 2,615 | 2,757 | 2,922 | 3,114 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,516.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,509 · 3,184 · 4,062 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,351 | 9,822 | 11,939 | 14,748 | 18,214 | 22,495 | 27,781 | 34,309 | 42,372 |
| growth % | 46.2 | 17.6 | 21.6 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,489 | 1,676 | 2,058 | 2,706 | 3,351 | 4,139 | 5,112 | 6,313 | 7,796 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 17.1 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 |
| less depreciation | (272) | (309) | (307) | (403) | (492) | (607) | (750) | (926) | (1,144) |
| EBIT | 1,218 | 1,366 | 1,751 | 2,303 | 2,860 | 3,532 | 4,362 | 5,387 | 6,652 |
| less tax on EBIT | (521) | (646) | (798) | (986) | (1,217) | (1,503) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,783 | 2,213 | 2,734 | 3,376 | 4,169 | 5,149 | |||
| add depreciation | 272 | 309 | 307 | 403 | 492 | 607 | 750 | 926 | 1,144 |
| less capex | (433) | (284) | (433) | (13) | (18) | (199) | (464) | (842) | (1,373) |
| less working-capital build | — | (516) | (638) | (788) | (973) | (1,201) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 522 | 937 | 724 | — | 2,171 | 2,504 | 2,874 | 3,281 | 3,719 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,060 | 2,141 | 2,214 | 2,277 | 2,325 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 31% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,303 | 2,860 | 3,532 | 4,362 | 5,387 | 6,652 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,860 | 3,532 | 4,362 | 5,387 | 6,652 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,865 | 2,213 | 2,734 | 3,376 | 4,169 | 5,149 |
| Dividends | (579) | (686) | (847) | (1,047) | (1,292) | (1,596) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,075 | 2,559 | 4,216 | 6,044 | 8,032 | 10,154 |
| Working capital | 2,202 | 2,719 | 3,356 | 4,144 | 5,117 | 6,318 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,099 | 7,626 | 7,218 | 6,931 | 6,847 | 7,076 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 7,838 | 9,365 | 11,251 | 13,581 | 16,457 | 20,010 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,189 | 2,703 | 3,338 | 4,123 | 5,092 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (199) | (464) | (842) | (1,373) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (686) | (847) | (1,047) | (1,292) | (1,596) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,484 | 1,657 | 1,828 | 1,988 | 2,123 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,171 | 2,504 | 2,874 | 3,281 | 3,719 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23.5% | 18.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,215 | (41.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.