Models
PETRONET LNG LIMITEDPETRONETGas
₹241per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹241implied FY26 P/E 8.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.4×
Against CMP ₹287.20−16.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹189₹344
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹235₹326
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8,039 |
| PV of terminal value | 26,195 |
| Enterprise value | 34,235 |
| less net debt | 1,859 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 36,094 |
| ÷ 150.00 crore shares | ₹241 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 248 | 266 | 286 | 312 | 344 |
| 10.50% | 230 | 244 | 261 | 282 | 307 |
| 11.00% | 214 | 226 | 241 | 257 | 278 |
| 11.50% | 201 | 211 | 223 | 237 | 253 |
| 12.00% | 189 | 198 | 208 | 220 | 233 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹287.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 203 · 241 · 287 |
| Draws below the CMP | 90% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 59,899 | 52,729 | 50,982 | 43,495 | 41,320 | 39,254 | 37,291 | 35,427 | 33,656 |
| growth % | 38.8 | (12.0) | (3.3) | (14.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 4,992 | 5,205 | 5,524 | 5,335 | 5,082 | 4,828 | 4,587 | 4,358 | 4,140 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| less depreciation | (764) | (777) | (806) | (838) | (785) | (746) | (709) | (673) | (639) |
| EBIT | 4,228 | 4,429 | 4,718 | 4,497 | 4,297 | 4,082 | 3,878 | 3,684 | 3,500 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,156) | (1,104) | (1,049) | (997) | (947) | (900) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,341 | 3,193 | 3,033 | 2,882 | 2,738 | 2,601 | |||
| add depreciation | 764 | 777 | 806 | 838 | 785 | 746 | 709 | 673 | 639 |
| less capex | (1,055) | (841) | (1,452) | (2,512) | (2,397) | (1,931) | (1,507) | (1,119) | (767) |
| less working-capital build | — | 61 | 58 | 55 | 52 | 50 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,514 | 4,030 | 2,946 | — | 1,642 | 1,906 | 2,139 | 2,343 | 2,522 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,559 | 1,629 | 1,647 | 1,626 | 1,577 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,497 | 4,297 | 4,082 | 3,878 | 3,684 | 3,500 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 4,297 | 4,082 | 3,878 | 3,684 | 3,500 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 3,193 | 3,033 | 2,882 | 2,738 | 2,601 |
| Dividends | (1,500) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,859 | 3,502 | 5,407 | 7,546 | 9,889 | 12,411 |
| Working capital | 1,215 | 1,155 | 1,097 | 1,042 | 990 | 940 |
| Net block and other assets | 24,365 | 25,977 | 27,162 | 27,960 | 28,407 | 28,535 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 22,285 | 25,478 | 28,511 | 31,393 | 34,130 | 36,731 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,039 | 3,837 | 3,645 | 3,463 | 3,290 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,397) | (1,931) | (1,507) | (1,119) | (767) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,642 | 1,906 | 2,139 | 2,343 | 2,522 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,642 | 1,906 | 2,139 | 2,343 | 2,522 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹241 | (16.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.