Models
PG ELECTROPLAST LTDPGELConsumer Durables
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 1.8× · EV/EBITDA 2.4×
Against CMP ₹545.00−97.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31213%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(7)₹54
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹437₹644
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (1,065) |
| PV of terminal value | 2,009 |
| Enterprise value | 944 |
| less net debt | (565) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 379 |
| ÷ 28.56 crore shares | ₹13 |
213% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 16 | 23 | 31 | 41 | 54 |
| 10.50% | 9 | 14 | 21 | 30 | 40 |
| 11.00% | 3 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 28 |
| 11.50% | (2) | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| 12.00% | (7) | (3) | 1 | 6 | 11 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹545.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (12) · 13 · 38 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,160 | 2,746 | 4,870 | 5,288 | 5,738 | 6,225 | 6,754 | 7,328 | 7,951 |
| growth % | 96.8 | 27.2 | 77.3 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 176 | 262 | 484 | 387 | 419 | 454 | 493 | 535 | 580 |
| margin % | 8.2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (47) | (66) | (88) | (98) | (106) | (115) | (125) | (135) |
| EBIT | 141 | 215 | 418 | 299 | 321 | 349 | 378 | 410 | 445 |
| less tax on EBIT | (69) | (75) | (81) | (88) | (95) | (103) | |||
| NOPAT | 229 | 247 | 268 | 290 | 315 | 342 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 47 | 66 | 88 | 98 | 106 | 115 | 125 | 135 |
| less capex | (155) | (227) | (488) | (785) | (849) | (723) | (569) | (383) | (162) |
| less working-capital build | — | (88) | (95) | (103) | (112) | (121) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (109) | (41) | (565) | — | (593) | (444) | (267) | (55) | 193 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (562) | (380) | (205) | (38) | 121 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 597, dividends at 3.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 299 | 321 | 349 | 378 | 410 | 445 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | |
| Profit before tax | 274 | 301 | 331 | 363 | 398 | |
| Profit after tax | 197 | 210 | 231 | 254 | 279 | 305 |
| Dividends | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | (605) | (1,094) | (1,407) | (1,509) | (1,363) |
| Working capital | 1,029 | 1,116 | 1,211 | 1,315 | 1,427 | 1,548 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,886 | 5,638 | 6,255 | 6,709 | 6,968 | 6,995 |
| Debt | 597 | 597 | 597 | 597 | 597 | 597 |
| Equity | 3,049 | 3,251 | 3,474 | 3,719 | 3,987 | 4,281 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 220 | 242 | 265 | 291 | 319 | |
| Investing (capex) | (849) | (723) | (569) | (383) | (162) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | (637) | (489) | (312) | (102) | 146 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (629) | (481) | (303) | (92) | 157 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 7.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | (97.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.