Models
PHYSICSWALLAH LIMITEDPWLOther Consumer Services
₹18per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹18implied FY26 P/E 150.9× · EV/EBITDA 15.4×
Against CMP ₹136.10−86.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹15₹25
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹78₹162
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,570 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,332 |
| Enterprise value | 4,902 |
| less net debt | 349 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,251 |
| ÷ 290.09 crore shares | ₹18 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 |
| 10.50% | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
| 11.00% | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 11.50% | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| 12.00% | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹136.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12 · 18 · 25 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | −0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,900 | 4,212 | 4,548 | 4,912 | 5,305 | 5,730 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 317 | 341 | 368 | 398 | 430 | 464 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| less depreciation | (437) | (472) | (509) | (550) | (594) | (642) |
| EBIT | (120) | (131) | (141) | (152) | (164) | (178) |
| less tax on EBIT | 423 | 461 | 498 | 537 | 580 | 627 |
| NOPAT | 303 | 330 | 357 | 385 | 416 | 449 |
| add depreciation | 437 | 472 | 509 | 550 | 594 | 642 |
| less capex | (322) | (345) | (433) | (532) | (644) | (770) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 457 | 433 | 404 | 367 | 321 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 433 | 371 | 311 | 254 | 201 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 11, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (120) | (131) | (141) | (152) | (164) | (178) |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | (131) | (142) | (153) | (165) | (178) | |
| Profit after tax | (22) | 332 | 359 | 387 | 418 | 451 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 360 | 818 | 1,254 | 1,660 | 2,028 | 2,351 |
| Working capital | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) |
| Net block and other assets | 7,382 | 7,256 | 7,179 | 7,161 | 7,210 | 7,338 |
| Debt | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Equity | 4,571 | 4,903 | 5,262 | 5,649 | 6,067 | 6,518 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 804 | 868 | 937 | 1,012 | 1,093 | |
| Investing (capex) | (345) | (433) | (532) | (644) | (770) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 459 | 436 | 406 | 369 | 323 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 459 | 436 | 406 | 369 | 323 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 8.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹18 | (86.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.