Models
PI INDUSTRIES LTDPIINDFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹779per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹779implied FY26 P/E 10.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹2,259.00−65.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹601₹1,135
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,352₹3,833
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,639 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,157 |
| Enterprise value | 11,796 |
| less net debt | 45 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,841 |
| ÷ 15.20 crore shares | ₹779 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 805 | 865 | 937 | 1,025 | 1,135 |
| 10.50% | 742 | 792 | 851 | 922 | 1,008 |
| 11.00% | 688 | 730 | 779 | 837 | 906 |
| 11.50% | 641 | 677 | 718 | 766 | 823 |
| 12.00% | 601 | 631 | 666 | 707 | 754 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,259.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 648 · 780 · 938 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,492 | 7,666 | 7,978 | 6,714 | 6,378 | 6,059 | 5,756 | 5,468 | 5,195 |
| growth % | 22.5 | 18.1 | 4.1 | (15.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,542 | 2,015 | 2,179 | 1,803 | 1,716 | 1,630 | 1,548 | 1,471 | 1,397 |
| margin % | 23.8 | 26.3 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 |
| less depreciation | (227) | (308) | (353) | (407) | (389) | (370) | (351) | (334) | (317) |
| EBIT | 1,316 | 1,707 | 1,827 | 1,396 | 1,327 | 1,260 | 1,197 | 1,137 | 1,081 |
| less tax on EBIT | (310) | (295) | (280) | (266) | (253) | (240) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,086 | 1,032 | 981 | 931 | 885 | 841 | |||
| add depreciation | 227 | 308 | 353 | 407 | 389 | 370 | 351 | 334 | 317 |
| less capex | (326) | (620) | (850) | (1,118) | (1,059) | (865) | (688) | (527) | (380) |
| less working-capital build | — | 128 | 122 | 116 | 110 | 104 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,175 | 1,416 | 563 | — | 491 | 607 | 710 | 801 | 882 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 466 | 519 | 547 | 556 | 551 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 238, dividends at 17.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,396 | 1,327 | 1,260 | 1,197 | 1,137 | 1,081 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,304 | 1,238 | 1,175 | 1,115 | 1,058 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,300 | 1,015 | 963 | 914 | 867 | 823 |
| Dividends | (228) | (178) | (169) | (160) | (152) | (144) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 283 | 579 | 1,000 | 1,532 | 2,164 | 2,884 |
| Working capital | 2,562 | 2,434 | 2,312 | 2,196 | 2,087 | 1,982 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,598 | 11,268 | 11,763 | 12,101 | 12,294 | 12,358 |
| Debt | 238 | 238 | 238 | 238 | 238 | 238 |
| Equity | 11,231 | 12,068 | 12,862 | 13,616 | 14,332 | 15,011 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,532 | 1,455 | 1,381 | 1,311 | 1,245 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,059) | (865) | (688) | (527) | (380) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (178) | (169) | (160) | (152) | (144) | |
| Net change in cash | 296 | 421 | 533 | 632 | 720 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 473 | 589 | 692 | 784 | 864 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 26.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹779 | (65.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.