Models
PICCADILY AGRO INDUSTRI LPICCADILBeverages
₹2per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2implied FY26 P/E 0.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.3×
Against CMP ₹600.30−99.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31150%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(21)₹50
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹515₹810
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (270) |
| PV of terminal value | 810 |
| Enterprise value | 540 |
| less net debt | (516) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 24 |
| ÷ 9.86 crore shares | ₹2 |
150% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | 50 |
| 10.50% | (3) | 4 | 12 | 21 | 33 |
| 11.00% | (10) | (4) | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 11.50% | (16) | (11) | (5) | 1 | 9 |
| 12.00% | (21) | (17) | (12) | (7) | (0) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹600.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (139) · 2 · 98 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 636 | 828 | 886 | 1,135 | 1,453 | 1,860 | 2,380 | 3,047 | 3,900 |
| growth % | 10.5 | 30.2 | 7.0 | 28.1 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 |
| EBITDA | 62 | 179 | 183 | 233 | 299 | 383 | 490 | 628 | 803 |
| margin % | 9.7 | 21.7 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (18) | (19) | (23) | (31) | (39) | (50) | (64) | (82) |
| EBIT | 46 | 161 | 163 | 210 | 269 | 344 | 440 | 564 | 722 |
| less tax on EBIT | (58) | (75) | (96) | (122) | (157) | (201) | |||
| NOPAT | 152 | 194 | 248 | 318 | 407 | 521 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 31 | 39 | 50 | 64 | 82 |
| less capex | (42) | (22) | (243) | (158) | (202) | (206) | (195) | (163) | (98) |
| less working-capital build | — | (159) | (203) | (260) | (333) | (427) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | 29 | (270) | — | (136) | (122) | (88) | (26) | 78 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (129) | (104) | (68) | (18) | 49 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 531, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 210 | 269 | 344 | 440 | 564 | 722 |
| Interest at 6.6% on debt | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| Profit before tax | 234 | 309 | 405 | 529 | 686 | |
| Profit after tax | 138 | 169 | 223 | 293 | 382 | 496 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | (147) | (294) | (407) | (458) | (405) |
| Working capital | 568 | 727 | 930 | 1,191 | 1,524 | 1,950 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,056 | 1,228 | 1,394 | 1,540 | 1,639 | 1,656 |
| Debt | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 |
| Equity | 901 | 1,070 | 1,293 | 1,586 | 1,967 | 2,463 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 59 | 82 | 112 | 151 | |
| Investing (capex) | (202) | (206) | (195) | (163) | (98) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (162) | (147) | (113) | (51) | 53 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (162) | (147) | (113) | (51) | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 28% | 20.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2 | (99.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.