₹358per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹358implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹1,164.00−69.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹231₹611
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹675₹1,228
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 305 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,621 |
| Enterprise value | 1,926 |
| less net debt | (579) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,347 |
| ÷ 3.77 crore shares | ₹358 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 375 | 418 | 470 | 533 | 611 |
| 10.50% | 331 | 366 | 409 | 459 | 521 |
| 11.00% | 293 | 323 | 358 | 399 | 449 |
| 11.50% | 259 | 285 | 314 | 349 | 389 |
| 12.00% | 231 | 253 | 278 | 307 | 340 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,164.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 204 · 352 · 518 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,100 | 1,202 | 1,705 | 1,913 | 2,142 | 2,399 | 2,687 | 3,010 | 3,371 |
| growth % | 15.3 | 9.2 | 41.9 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 151 | 178 | 271 | 316 | 353 | 396 | 443 | 497 | 556 |
| margin % | 13.8 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| less depreciation | (45) | (54) | (81) | (105) | (118) | (132) | (148) | (166) | (185) |
| EBIT | 107 | 124 | 191 | 211 | 236 | 264 | 296 | 331 | 371 |
| less tax on EBIT | (63) | (70) | (78) | (88) | (98) | (110) | |||
| NOPAT | 148 | 166 | 186 | 208 | 233 | 261 | |||
| add depreciation | 45 | 54 | 81 | 105 | 118 | 132 | 148 | 166 | 185 |
| less capex | (96) | (239) | (326) | (191) | (214) | (220) | (223) | (224) | (222) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (48) | (54) | (60) | (68) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 126 | (165) | (38) | — | 26 | 50 | 79 | 114 | 156 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 25 | 43 | 61 | 79 | 98 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 699, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 211 | 236 | 264 | 296 | 331 | 371 |
| Interest at 13.1% on debt | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | |
| Profit before tax | 144 | 172 | 204 | 240 | 279 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 101 | 121 | 143 | 168 | 196 |
| Dividends | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 119 | 81 | 67 | 81 | 131 | 222 |
| Working capital | 358 | 401 | 449 | 503 | 563 | 631 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,660 | 1,757 | 1,844 | 1,920 | 1,978 | 2,015 |
| Debt | 699 | 699 | 699 | 699 | 699 | 699 |
| Equity | 987 | 1,088 | 1,209 | 1,353 | 1,521 | 1,718 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 176 | 205 | 237 | 274 | 314 | |
| Investing (capex) | (214) | (220) | (223) | (224) | (222) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (38) | (14) | 14 | 49 | 92 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (38) | (14) | 14 | 49 | 92 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 16.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹358 | (69.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.