₹118per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹118implied FY26 P/E 7.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹192.00−38.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹90₹175
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹121₹216
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 71 |
| PV of terminal value | 251 |
| Enterprise value | 322 |
| less net debt | (15) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 307 |
| ÷ 2.60 crore shares | ₹118 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 122 | 132 | 143 | 158 | 175 |
| 10.50% | 112 | 120 | 130 | 141 | 155 |
| 11.00% | 104 | 110 | 118 | 127 | 139 |
| 11.50% | 96 | 102 | 108 | 116 | 125 |
| 12.00% | 90 | 94 | 100 | 107 | 114 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹192.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 92 · 117 · 146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 769 | 802 | 780 | 789 | 797 | 805 | 813 | 821 | 829 |
| growth % | 7.1 | 4.4 | (2.7) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 50 | 55 | 52 | 53 | 53 | 54 | 54 | 55 | 56 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 33 | 39 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 40 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (8) | (12) | (11) | (28) | (28) | (26) | (23) | (21) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 64 | 26 | (3) | — | 14 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 20, dividends at 17.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 40 |
| Interest at 10.7% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 38 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Dividends | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 48 | 66 |
| Working capital | 250 | 252 | 255 | 258 | 260 | 263 |
| Net block and other assets | 303 | 316 | 326 | 334 | 340 | 343 |
| Debt | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Equity | 449 | 471 | 494 | 517 | 540 | 563 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
| Investing (capex) | (28) | (26) | (23) | (21) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 6.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹118 | (38.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.