Models
PNC INFRATECH LTD.PNCINFRAConstruction
₹365per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹365implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹175.25+108.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(18.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹251₹593
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹158₹325
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,796 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,850 |
| Enterprise value | 13,646 |
| less net debt | (4,280) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,366 |
| ÷ 25.65 crore shares | ₹365 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 382 | 420 | 466 | 522 | 593 |
| 10.50% | 342 | 374 | 411 | 456 | 511 |
| 11.00% | 307 | 334 | 365 | 402 | 446 |
| 11.50% | 277 | 300 | 326 | 357 | 393 |
| 12.00% | 251 | 270 | 293 | 319 | 349 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 289 · 366 · 458 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,956 | 8,650 | 6,769 | 5,368 | 5,100 | 4,845 | 4,602 | 4,372 | 4,154 |
| growth % | 10.4 | 8.7 | (21.7) | (20.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,600 | 2,005 | 2,066 | 1,629 | 1,545 | 1,468 | 1,395 | 1,325 | 1,259 |
| margin % | 20.1 | 23.2 | 30.5 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 | 30.3 |
| less depreciation | (253) | (177) | (195) | (122) | (117) | (111) | (106) | (101) | (96) |
| EBIT | 1,347 | 1,828 | 1,872 | 1,507 | 1,428 | 1,357 | 1,289 | 1,224 | 1,163 |
| less tax on EBIT | (332) | (314) | (298) | (284) | (269) | (256) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,175 | 1,114 | 1,058 | 1,005 | 955 | 907 | |||
| add depreciation | 253 | 177 | 195 | 122 | 117 | 111 | 106 | 101 | 96 |
| less capex | (63) | (51) | (35) | (326) | (311) | (255) | (204) | (157) | (115) |
| less working-capital build | — | 74 | 70 | 67 | 64 | 60 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,517) | (282) | (91) | — | 994 | 985 | 974 | 962 | 948 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 944 | 842 | 750 | 668 | 593 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,151, dividends at 1.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,507 | 1,428 | 1,357 | 1,289 | 1,224 | 1,163 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (412) | (412) | (412) | (412) | (412) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,016 | 944 | 877 | 812 | 751 | |
| Profit after tax | 832 | 792 | 737 | 684 | 634 | 586 |
| Dividends | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 871 | 1,529 | 2,178 | 2,818 | 3,446 | 4,062 |
| Working capital | 1,481 | 1,407 | 1,337 | 1,270 | 1,206 | 1,146 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,506 | 11,700 | 11,843 | 11,941 | 11,998 | 12,017 |
| Debt | 5,151 | 5,151 | 5,151 | 5,151 | 5,151 | 5,151 |
| Equity | 6,813 | 7,590 | 8,313 | 8,984 | 9,605 | 10,180 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 984 | 918 | 856 | 798 | 742 | |
| Investing (capex) | (311) | (255) | (204) | (157) | (115) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | 658 | 649 | 640 | 628 | 616 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 673 | 663 | 653 | 640 | 627 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 30.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹365 | 108.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.