Models
P O C L ENTERPRISES LTD.POELChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹193per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹193implied FY26 P/E 13.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹141.00+37.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(14.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹298
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 168 |
| PV of terminal value | 542 |
| Enterprise value | 711 |
| less net debt | (116) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 595 |
| ÷ 3.08 crore shares | ₹193 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 201 | 218 | 240 | 265 | 298 |
| 10.50% | 182 | 197 | 214 | 235 | 260 |
| 11.00% | 167 | 179 | 193 | 210 | 231 |
| 11.50% | 153 | 163 | 175 | 190 | 206 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 150 | 160 | 172 | 186 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹141.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 151 · 191 · 240 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,432 | 1,546 | 1,670 | 1,804 | 1,948 | 2,104 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 | 97 | 105 |
| margin % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 66 | 71 | 77 | 83 | 90 | 97 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) | (23) | (25) |
| NOPAT | 49 | 53 | 57 | 61 | 66 | 72 |
| add depreciation | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (18) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 132, dividends at 8.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 71 | 77 | 83 | 90 | 97 |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 55 | 60 | 66 | 73 | 80 | |
| Profit after tax | 41 | 40 | 44 | 49 | 54 | 59 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 37 | 61 | 88 | 119 | 154 |
| Working capital | 162 | 175 | 189 | 204 | 221 | 238 |
| Net block and other assets | 186 | 189 | 192 | 195 | 197 | 199 |
| Debt | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| Equity | 195 | 232 | 272 | 317 | 367 | 421 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 28 | 31 | 35 | 40 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹193 | 37.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.