Models
POLYCAB INDIA LIMITEDPOLYCABIndustrial Products
₹2,695per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,695implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹8,241.00−67.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,996₹4,096
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6,663₹10,126
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,491 |
| PV of terminal value | 35,845 |
| Enterprise value | 40,335 |
| less net debt | 258 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40,593 |
| ÷ 15.06 crore shares | ₹2,695 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,792 | 3,029 | 3,313 | 3,661 | 4,096 |
| 10.50% | 2,546 | 2,743 | 2,975 | 3,255 | 3,596 |
| 11.00% | 2,335 | 2,501 | 2,695 | 2,924 | 3,198 |
| 11.50% | 2,154 | 2,295 | 2,458 | 2,648 | 2,873 |
| 12.00% | 1,996 | 2,117 | 2,256 | 2,416 | 2,602 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹8,241.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,573 · 2,633 · 3,655 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,108 | 18,039 | 22,408 | 28,884 | 37,260 | 48,066 | 62,005 | 79,986 | 1,03,182 |
| growth % | 15.6 | 27.9 | 24.2 | 28.9 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,852 | 2,492 | 2,960 | 4,006 | 5,179 | 6,681 | 8,619 | 11,118 | 14,342 |
| margin % | 13.1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| less depreciation | (209) | (245) | (298) | (386) | (484) | (625) | (806) | (1,040) | (1,341) |
| EBIT | 1,643 | 2,247 | 2,662 | 3,620 | 4,695 | 6,056 | 7,813 | 10,078 | 13,001 |
| less tax on EBIT | (905) | (1,174) | (1,514) | (1,953) | (2,520) | (3,250) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,715 | 3,521 | 4,542 | 5,859 | 7,559 | 9,751 | |||
| add depreciation | 209 | 245 | 298 | 386 | 484 | 625 | 806 | 1,040 | 1,341 |
| less capex | (477) | (853) | (970) | (1,480) | (1,900) | (2,026) | (2,065) | (1,956) | (1,610) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,178) | (2,809) | (3,624) | (4,675) | (6,031) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 950 | 443 | 839 | — | (73) | 332 | 977 | 1,968 | 3,451 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (69) | 284 | 752 | 1,366 | 2,158 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 132, dividends at 20.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,620 | 4,695 | 6,056 | 7,813 | 10,078 | 13,001 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,684 | 6,046 | 7,802 | 10,068 | 12,990 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,672 | 3,513 | 4,534 | 5,851 | 7,551 | 9,743 |
| Dividends | (547) | (720) | (930) | (1,200) | (1,548) | (1,997) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 390 | (410) | (1,016) | (1,247) | (835) | 611 |
| Working capital | 7,518 | 9,696 | 12,505 | 16,129 | 20,804 | 26,835 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,568 | 13,984 | 15,385 | 16,644 | 17,560 | 17,828 |
| Debt | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| Equity | 12,127 | 14,920 | 18,524 | 23,176 | 29,179 | 36,925 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,820 | 2,350 | 3,033 | 3,915 | 5,053 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,900) | (2,026) | (2,065) | (1,956) | (1,610) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (720) | (930) | (1,200) | (1,548) | (1,997) | |
| Net change in cash | (801) | (606) | (231) | 412 | 1,446 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (81) | 324 | 969 | 1,960 | 3,444 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 29% | 13.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,695 | (67.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.