Models
PONDY OXIDES & CHEM LTDPOCLDiversified Metals
₹42per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹42implied FY26 P/E 1.1× · EV/EBITDA 2.2×
Against CMP ₹455.00−90.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3196%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹25₹77
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹454₹584
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20 |
| PV of terminal value | 445 |
| Enterprise value | 465 |
| less net debt | (142) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 323 |
| ÷ 7.63 crore shares | ₹42 |
96% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 45 | 50 | 57 | 66 | 77 |
| 10.50% | 39 | 43 | 49 | 56 | 64 |
| 11.00% | 34 | 38 | 42 | 48 | 55 |
| 11.50% | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 47 |
| 12.00% | 25 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹455.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (153) · 42 · 170 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.79 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,476 | 1,541 | 2,057 | 2,958 | 3,846 | 5,000 | 6,500 | 8,449 | 10,984 |
| growth % | — | 4.4 | 33.5 | 43.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 106 | 70 | 105 | 210 | 273 | 355 | 461 | 600 | 780 |
| margin % | 7.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (13) | (17) | (25) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (68) | (88) |
| EBIT | 95 | 57 | 88 | 185 | 242 | 315 | 409 | 532 | 692 |
| less tax on EBIT | (50) | (65) | (84) | (110) | (143) | (185) | |||
| NOPAT | 135 | 177 | 231 | 300 | 390 | 507 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 13 | 17 | 25 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 |
| less capex | (111) | (37) | (89) | (50) | (65) | (76) | (86) | (97) | (105) |
| less working-capital build | — | (156) | (203) | (264) | (343) | (446) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (32) | 28 | (170) | — | (13) | (8) | 1 | 17 | 43 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (13) | (7) | 1 | 12 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 152, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 185 | 242 | 315 | 409 | 532 | 692 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 230 | 303 | 397 | 520 | 680 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 169 | 222 | 291 | 381 | 498 |
| Dividends | (11) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | (12) | (29) | (37) | (28) | 6 |
| Working capital | 522 | 678 | 881 | 1,145 | 1,488 | 1,935 |
| Net block and other assets | 451 | 485 | 521 | 556 | 585 | 602 |
| Debt | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 |
| Equity | 788 | 957 | 1,179 | 1,470 | 1,851 | 2,348 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 43 | 59 | 79 | 105 | 139 | |
| Investing (capex) | (65) | (76) | (86) | (97) | (105) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (22) | (17) | (7) | 9 | 34 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (22) | (17) | (7) | 9 | 34 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 7.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹42 | (90.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.