Models
POWER GRID CORP. LTD.POWERGRIDPower
₹198per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹198implied FY26 P/E 11.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹269.10−26.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹110₹373
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹250₹325
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50,766 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,75,962 |
| Enterprise value | 3,26,728 |
| less net debt | (1,42,728) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,84,000 |
| ÷ 930.06 crore shares | ₹198 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 210 | 240 | 275 | 319 | 373 |
| 10.50% | 179 | 204 | 233 | 268 | 310 |
| 11.00% | 153 | 174 | 198 | 226 | 261 |
| 11.50% | 130 | 148 | 168 | 192 | 220 |
| 12.00% | 110 | 125 | 143 | 163 | 186 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹269.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 118 · 195 · 285 |
| Draws below the CMP | 86% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 45,581 | 45,843 | 45,792 | 46,733 | 47,668 | 48,621 | 49,593 | 50,585 | 51,597 |
| growth % | 9.5 | 0.6 | (0.1) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 39,478 | 39,903 | 39,065 | 37,979 | 38,754 | 39,529 | 40,319 | 41,126 | 41,948 |
| margin % | 86.6 | 87.0 | 85.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
| less depreciation | (13,333) | (13,095) | (12,904) | (13,030) | (13,299) | (13,565) | (13,837) | (14,113) | (14,396) |
| EBIT | 26,145 | 26,808 | 26,161 | 24,949 | 25,454 | 25,964 | 26,483 | 27,012 | 27,553 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1,971 | 2,011 | 2,051 | 2,092 | 2,134 | 2,177 | |||
| NOPAT | 26,920 | 27,465 | 28,015 | 28,575 | 29,146 | 29,729 | |||
| add depreciation | 13,333 | 13,095 | 12,904 | 13,030 | 13,299 | 13,565 | 13,837 | 14,113 | 14,396 |
| less capex | (5,242) | (9,323) | (22,614) | (37,279) | (38,039) | (33,169) | (28,090) | (22,794) | (17,275) |
| less working-capital build | — | (257) | (262) | (267) | (273) | (278) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 32,763 | 27,966 | 13,609 | — | 2,469 | 8,149 | 14,054 | 20,193 | 26,572 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,343 | 6,968 | 10,827 | 14,014 | 16,614 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,48,009, dividends at 52.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24,949 | 25,454 | 25,964 | 26,483 | 27,012 | 27,553 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (9,029) | (9,029) | (9,029) | (9,029) | (9,029) | |
| Profit before tax | 16,426 | 16,935 | 17,454 | 17,984 | 18,524 | |
| Profit after tax | 15,928 | 17,724 | 18,273 | 18,833 | 19,405 | 19,988 |
| Dividends | (8,371) | (9,323) | (9,612) | (9,906) | (10,207) | (10,513) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5,281 | (11,315) | (22,520) | (28,113) | (27,869) | (21,552) |
| Working capital | 12,842 | 13,099 | 13,361 | 13,629 | 13,901 | 14,180 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,76,605 | 3,01,344 | 3,20,948 | 3,35,201 | 3,43,882 | 3,46,761 |
| Debt | 1,48,009 | 1,48,009 | 1,48,009 | 1,48,009 | 1,48,009 | 1,48,009 |
| Equity | 1,00,494 | 1,08,895 | 1,17,556 | 1,26,483 | 1,35,681 | 1,45,155 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30,766 | 31,576 | 32,402 | 33,245 | 34,105 | |
| Investing (capex) | (38,039) | (33,169) | (28,090) | (22,794) | (17,275) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9,323) | (9,612) | (9,906) | (10,207) | (10,513) | |
| Net change in cash | (16,596) | (11,205) | (5,594) | 245 | 6,317 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7,273) | (1,593) | 4,313 | 10,451 | 16,830 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 81.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹198 | (26.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.