Models
PPAP AUTOMOTIVE LIMITEDPPAPAuto Components
₹375per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹375implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹237.35+58.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹260₹605
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹176₹380
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 178 |
| PV of terminal value | 550 |
| Enterprise value | 729 |
| less net debt | (198) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 531 |
| ÷ 1.42 crore shares | ₹375 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 392 | 431 | 477 | 534 | 605 |
| 10.50% | 351 | 383 | 422 | 467 | 523 |
| 11.00% | 316 | 343 | 375 | 412 | 457 |
| 11.50% | 286 | 309 | 336 | 367 | 404 |
| 12.00% | 260 | 280 | 302 | 328 | 359 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹237.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 263 · 372 · 496 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 511 | 523 | 554 | 567 | 581 | 596 | 611 | 626 | 642 |
| growth % | 21.1 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 44 | 40 | 57 | 102 | 104 | 107 | 109 | 112 | 115 |
| margin % | 8.6 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (34) | (34) | (36) | (37) | (38) | (38) | (39) | (40) |
| EBIT | 13 | 6 | 23 | 66 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 73 | 74 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 57 | 58 | 59 | 61 | 62 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
| less capex | (52) | (27) | (9) | (50) | (52) | (51) | (50) | (49) | (49) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (18) | 14 | 43 | — | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 53 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 201, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 73 | 74 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 48 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 55 | |
| Profit after tax | 43 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 |
| Dividends | (4) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 23 | 46 | 73 | 102 | 135 |
| Working capital | 100 | 103 | 105 | 108 | 111 | 113 |
| Net block and other assets | 639 | 654 | 667 | 679 | 689 | 697 |
| Debt | 201 | 201 | 201 | 201 | 201 | 201 |
| Equity | 341 | 379 | 419 | 460 | 502 | 545 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 76 | 78 | 80 | 83 | 85 | |
| Investing (capex) | (52) | (51) | (50) | (49) | (49) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 33 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 17.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹375 | 58.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.