Models
PRAJ INDUSTRIES LTDPRAJINDIndustrial Manufacturing
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 7.9× · EV/EBITDA 0.8×
Against CMP ₹322.50−96.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-53%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹11₹14
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹273₹428
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 148 |
| PV of terminal value | (51) |
| Enterprise value | 96 |
| less net debt | 142 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 238 |
| ÷ 18.38 crore shares | ₹13 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 10.50% | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 11.00% | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 11.50% | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 12.00% | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹322.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9 · 13 · 17 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.07 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,528 | 3,466 | 3,228 | 3,168 | 3,105 | 3,042 | 2,982 | 2,922 | 2,864 |
| growth % | 51.2 | (1.8) | (6.9) | (1.9) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 318 | 388 | 353 | 125 | 124 | 122 | 119 | 117 | 115 |
| margin % | 9.0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (44) | (86) | (106) | (102) | (100) | (98) | (96) | (94) |
| EBIT | 288 | 344 | 267 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 44 | 86 | 106 | 102 | 100 | 98 | 96 | 94 |
| less capex | (35) | (89) | (87) | (44) | (43) | (62) | (80) | (97) | (113) |
| less working-capital build | — | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 127 | 110 | (44) | — | 74 | 53 | 33 | 14 | (5) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 70 | 45 | 25 | 9 | (3) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | |
| Profit after tax | 24 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Dividends | (110) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 142 | 206 | 249 | 272 | 276 | 262 |
| Working capital | 239 | 234 | 229 | 225 | 220 | 216 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,675 | 2,616 | 2,578 | 2,559 | 2,560 | 2,579 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,309 | 1,309 | 1,309 | 1,309 | 1,309 | 1,309 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 118 | 115 | 113 | 111 | 108 | |
| Investing (capex) | (43) | (62) | (80) | (97) | (113) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | 64 | 43 | 23 | 4 | (15) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 74 | 53 | 33 | 14 | (5) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | (96.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.