Models
PRAKASH INDUSTRIES LTDPRAKASHFerrous Metals
₹173per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹173implied FY26 P/E 9.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.0×
Against CMP ₹123.60+39.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(14.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹127₹265
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹110₹177
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 810 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,785 |
| Enterprise value | 3,595 |
| less net debt | (499) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,096 |
| ÷ 17.91 crore shares | ₹173 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 180 | 195 | 214 | 236 | 265 |
| 10.50% | 163 | 176 | 191 | 210 | 232 |
| 11.00% | 149 | 160 | 173 | 188 | 206 |
| 11.50% | 137 | 147 | 157 | 170 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 127 | 135 | 144 | 154 | 166 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹123.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 135 · 173 · 218 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,444 | 3,678 | 4,014 | 3,479 | 3,305 | 3,139 | 2,983 | 2,833 | 2,692 |
| growth % | (12.3) | 6.8 | 9.2 | (13.3) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 413 | 493 | 520 | 513 | 489 | 465 | 441 | 419 | 398 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| less depreciation | (152) | (153) | (143) | (168) | (159) | (151) | (143) | (136) | (129) |
| EBIT | 261 | 340 | 377 | 345 | 330 | 314 | 298 | 283 | 269 |
| less tax on EBIT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| NOPAT | 348 | 333 | 316 | 300 | 285 | 271 | |||
| add depreciation | 152 | 153 | 143 | 168 | 159 | 151 | 143 | 136 | 129 |
| less capex | (458) | (464) | (175) | (387) | (367) | (307) | (251) | (201) | (155) |
| less working-capital build | — | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 127 | 138 | (33) | — | 153 | 187 | 218 | 244 | 268 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 145 | 160 | 168 | 170 | 168 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 514, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 345 | 330 | 314 | 298 | 283 | 269 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | |
| Profit before tax | 282 | 266 | 250 | 235 | 221 | |
| Profit after tax | 333 | 284 | 268 | 252 | 237 | 222 |
| Dividends | (27) | (23) | (22) | (20) | (19) | (18) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 96 | 212 | 361 | 537 | 739 |
| Working capital | 565 | 537 | 510 | 485 | 461 | 438 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,173 | 4,381 | 4,537 | 4,645 | 4,710 | 4,736 |
| Debt | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 | 514 |
| Equity | 3,588 | 3,850 | 4,095 | 4,327 | 4,544 | 4,749 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 471 | 445 | 420 | 397 | 375 | |
| Investing (capex) | (367) | (307) | (251) | (201) | (155) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (23) | (22) | (20) | (19) | (18) | |
| Net change in cash | 81 | 117 | 148 | 177 | 202 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 104 | 138 | 169 | 196 | 220 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 14.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹173 | 39.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.