Models
PRECISION CAMSHAFTS LTD.PRECAMAuto Components
₹18per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹18implied FY26 P/E 4.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.2×
Against CMP ₹116.50−84.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹13₹28
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹104₹246
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20 |
| PV of terminal value | 155 |
| Enterprise value | 175 |
| less net debt | (5) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 170 |
| ÷ 9.50 crore shares | ₹18 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 19 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 |
| 10.50% | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 11.00% | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 11.50% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
| 12.00% | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹116.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 18 · 25 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,080 | 1,031 | 865 | 773 | 734 | 698 | 663 | 630 | 598 |
| growth % | 20.7 | (4.5) | (16.1) | (10.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 111 | 118 | 116 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 61 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (75) | (82) | (57) | (45) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (37) | (35) |
| EBIT | 35 | 37 | 58 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |||
| add depreciation | 75 | 82 | 57 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 |
| less capex | (62) | (65) | (54) | (78) | (74) | (65) | (57) | (49) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 41 | 65 | 89 | — | (4) | 2 | 7 | 11 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 1 | 5 | 8 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 44, dividends at 18.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 34 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 |
| Interest at 9.7% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 21 | |
| Profit after tax | 51 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Dividends | (10) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 39 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 41 |
| Working capital | 129 | 123 | 117 | 111 | 105 | 100 |
| Net block and other assets | 881 | 912 | 936 | 954 | 966 | 973 |
| Debt | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Equity | 836 | 850 | 864 | 877 | 889 | 900 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | |
| Investing (capex) | (74) | (65) | (57) | (49) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | (10) | (4) | 1 | 5 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (7) | (1) | 4 | 8 | 12 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹18 | (84.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.