Models
PRICOL LIMITEDPRICOLLTDAuto Components
₹344per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹344implied FY26 P/E 15.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹765.30−55.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹244₹544
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹500₹823
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 284 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,152 |
| Enterprise value | 4,436 |
| less net debt | (245) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,191 |
| ÷ 12.19 crore shares | ₹344 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 357 | 391 | 432 | 482 | 544 |
| 10.50% | 322 | 350 | 384 | 424 | 473 |
| 11.00% | 292 | 316 | 344 | 377 | 416 |
| 11.50% | 267 | 287 | 310 | 337 | 369 |
| 12.00% | 244 | 261 | 281 | 304 | 331 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹765.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 189 · 334 · 493 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,959 | 2,272 | 2,692 | 4,041 | 5,253 | 6,829 | 8,878 | 11,541 | 15,003 |
| growth % | 26.8 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 50.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 238 | 273 | 313 | 469 | 609 | 792 | 1,030 | 1,339 | 1,740 |
| margin % | 12.2 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| less depreciation | (78) | (82) | (90) | (120) | (158) | (205) | (266) | (346) | (450) |
| EBIT | 160 | 191 | 223 | 349 | 452 | 587 | 763 | 993 | 1,290 |
| less tax on EBIT | (85) | (109) | (142) | (185) | (240) | (312) | |||
| NOPAT | 265 | 342 | 445 | 579 | 752 | 978 | |||
| add depreciation | 78 | 82 | 90 | 120 | 158 | 205 | 266 | 346 | 450 |
| less capex | (85) | (143) | (216) | (323) | (420) | (471) | (515) | (542) | (540) |
| less working-capital build | — | (171) | (222) | (289) | (376) | (488) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 81 | 111 | 93 | — | (91) | (43) | 41 | 181 | 400 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (87) | (37) | 32 | 125 | 250 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 363, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 349 | 452 | 587 | 763 | 993 | 1,290 |
| Interest at 12.3% on debt | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
| Profit before tax | 407 | 543 | 719 | 948 | 1,246 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 309 | 411 | 545 | 718 | 944 |
| Dividends | (24) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 118 | (7) | (84) | (77) | 70 | 436 |
| Working capital | 571 | 742 | 964 | 1,253 | 1,629 | 2,117 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,786 | 2,049 | 2,315 | 2,564 | 2,760 | 2,850 |
| Debt | 363 | 363 | 363 | 363 | 363 | 363 |
| Equity | 1,255 | 1,563 | 1,975 | 2,520 | 3,238 | 4,182 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 295 | 394 | 522 | 689 | 906 | |
| Investing (capex) | (420) | (471) | (515) | (542) | (540) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (125) | (77) | 7 | 147 | 366 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (125) | (77) | 7 | 147 | 366 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹344 | (55.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.