Models
PRIMO CHEMICALS LIMITEDPRIMOChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹-3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(3)implied FY26 P/E (4.3)× · EV/EBITDA 0.9×
Against CMP ₹23.57−111.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31-24%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(3)₹(3)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹16₹27
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 77 |
| PV of terminal value | (15) |
| Enterprise value | 62 |
| less net debt | (130) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (68) |
| ÷ 24.23 crore shares | ₹(3) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 10.50% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 11.00% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 11.50% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 12.00% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.57; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (6) · (3) · (0) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +1.00 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.04 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 707 | 397 | 556 | 562 | 567 | 573 | 579 | 584 | 590 |
| growth % | 55.8 | (43.9) | 39.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 192 | 7 | 68 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 71 |
| margin % | 27.2 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (40) | (51) | (53) | (53) | (54) | (54) | (55) | (55) |
| EBIT | 168 | (33) | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 24 | 40 | 51 | 53 | 53 | 54 | 54 | 55 | 55 |
| less capex | (189) | (68) | (40) | (26) | (26) | (36) | (46) | (56) | (67) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (39) | (54) | 24 | — | 37 | 27 | 18 | 8 | (1) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 35 | 23 | 14 | 6 | (1) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 131, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (1) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 27 | 45 | 52 | 51 | 39 |
| Working capital | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Net block and other assets | 660 | 633 | 615 | 606 | 607 | 618 |
| Debt | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 |
| Equity | 406 | 406 | 405 | 405 | 405 | 404 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 53 | 54 | 54 | 55 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (36) | (46) | (56) | (67) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 26 | 17 | 8 | (2) | (12) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 26 | 17 | 8 | (2) | (12) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 12.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(3) | (111.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.