Models
PRISM JOHNSON LIMITEDPRSMJOHNSNCement & Cement Products
₹23per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹23implied FY26 P/E 6.6× · EV/EBITDA 2.2×
Against CMP ₹113.40−79.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3148%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹18₹33
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹97₹176
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 922 |
| PV of terminal value | 866 |
| Enterprise value | 1,788 |
| less net debt | (636) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,152 |
| ÷ 50.34 crore shares | ₹23 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 |
| 10.50% | 22 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| 11.00% | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 11.50% | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 |
| 12.00% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹113.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 23 · 40 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.15 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,361 | 7,588 | 7,310 | 7,381 | 7,454 | 7,529 | 7,604 | 7,680 | 7,757 |
| growth % | 16.7 | 3.1 | (3.7) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 354 | 732 | 564 | 804 | 813 | 821 | 829 | 837 | 846 |
| margin % | 4.8 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (390) | (414) | (483) | (531) | (537) | (542) | (548) | (553) | (559) |
| EBIT | (36) | 318 | 81 | 274 | 276 | 279 | 281 | 284 | 287 |
| less tax on EBIT | (83) | (84) | (85) | (86) | (86) | (87) | |||
| NOPAT | 191 | 192 | 194 | 196 | 198 | 200 | |||
| add depreciation | 390 | 414 | 483 | 531 | 537 | 542 | 548 | 553 | 559 |
| less capex | (369) | (495) | (389) | (358) | (365) | (439) | (515) | (592) | (670) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 223 | (22) | 348 | — | 359 | 292 | 224 | 154 | 83 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 341 | 250 | 173 | 107 | 52 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,113, dividends at 10.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 274 | 276 | 279 | 281 | 284 | 287 |
| Interest at 15.9% on debt | (177) | (177) | (177) | (177) | (177) | |
| Profit before tax | 99 | 102 | 104 | 107 | 110 | |
| Profit after tax | 73 | 69 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 77 |
| Dividends | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 477 | 705 | 867 | 960 | 984 | 936 |
| Working capital | 447 | 451 | 456 | 461 | 465 | 470 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,409 | 6,238 | 6,135 | 6,102 | 6,141 | 6,253 |
| Debt | 1,113 | 1,113 | 1,113 | 1,113 | 1,113 | 1,113 |
| Equity | 1,841 | 1,903 | 1,966 | 2,031 | 2,098 | 2,167 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 601 | 608 | 616 | 623 | 630 | |
| Investing (capex) | (365) | (439) | (515) | (592) | (670) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | |
| Net change in cash | 229 | 162 | 93 | 24 | (48) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 236 | 169 | 101 | 31 | (40) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹23 | (79.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.