Models
PRIVI SPECIALITY CHE LTDPRIVISCLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹1,288per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,288implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.3×
Against CMP ₹3,551.10−63.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹898₹2,068
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,281₹3,785
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 826 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,171 |
| Enterprise value | 5,997 |
| less net debt | (966) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,031 |
| ÷ 3.91 crore shares | ₹1,288 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,342 | 1,474 | 1,633 | 1,826 | 2,068 |
| 10.50% | 1,205 | 1,315 | 1,444 | 1,600 | 1,790 |
| 11.00% | 1,088 | 1,180 | 1,288 | 1,415 | 1,568 |
| 11.50% | 987 | 1,065 | 1,156 | 1,262 | 1,386 |
| 12.00% | 898 | 966 | 1,043 | 1,132 | 1,236 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,551.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 816 · 1,262 · 1,769 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,608 | 1,752 | 2,101 | 2,564 | 3,128 | 3,816 | 4,655 | 5,679 | 6,929 |
| growth % | 14.5 | 9.0 | 19.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| EBITDA | 186 | 325 | 454 | 646 | 788 | 962 | 1,173 | 1,431 | 1,746 |
| margin % | 11.6 | 18.5 | 21.6 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 |
| less depreciation | (108) | (123) | (132) | (144) | (175) | (214) | (261) | (318) | (388) |
| EBIT | 77 | 202 | 322 | 502 | 613 | 748 | 912 | 1,113 | 1,358 |
| less tax on EBIT | (141) | (172) | (209) | (255) | (312) | (380) | |||
| NOPAT | 362 | 441 | 538 | 657 | 801 | 978 | |||
| add depreciation | 108 | 123 | 132 | 144 | 175 | 214 | 261 | 318 | 388 |
| less capex | (140) | (151) | (299) | (320) | (391) | (422) | (447) | (464) | (466) |
| less working-capital build | — | (182) | (222) | (270) | (330) | (402) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (91) | 204 | (18) | — | 44 | 109 | 200 | 326 | 498 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 42 | 93 | 154 | 226 | 311 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,010, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 502 | 613 | 748 | 912 | 1,113 | 1,358 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (78) | (78) | (78) | (78) | (78) | |
| Profit before tax | 535 | 670 | 835 | 1,035 | 1,280 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 385 | 482 | 601 | 745 | 922 |
| Dividends | (20) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 44 | 32 | 85 | 229 | 499 | 941 |
| Working capital | 825 | 1,006 | 1,228 | 1,498 | 1,828 | 2,230 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,301 | 2,517 | 2,725 | 2,912 | 3,057 | 3,135 |
| Debt | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 |
| Equity | 1,441 | 1,826 | 2,308 | 2,909 | 3,655 | 4,577 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 379 | 475 | 591 | 734 | 908 | |
| Investing (capex) | (391) | (422) | (447) | (464) | (466) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (12) | 53 | 144 | 270 | 442 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (12) | 53 | 144 | 270 | 442 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22% | 25.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,288 | (63.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.