Models
PROCTER & GAMBLE HEALTH LPGHLPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹8,229per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹8,229implied FY26 P/E 38.3× · EV/EBITDA 29.5×
Against CMP ₹5,400.00+52.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹6,278₹12,130
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,707₹6,975
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,516 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,968 |
| Enterprise value | 13,484 |
| less net debt | 177 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,661 |
| ÷ 1.66 crore shares | ₹8,229 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8,508 | 9,167 | 9,957 | 10,922 | 12,130 |
| 10.50% | 7,820 | 8,367 | 9,014 | 9,790 | 10,738 |
| 11.00% | 7,232 | 7,692 | 8,229 | 8,864 | 9,626 |
| 11.50% | 6,723 | 7,115 | 7,567 | 8,095 | 8,718 |
| 12.00% | 6,278 | 6,615 | 7,000 | 7,444 | 7,963 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,400.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6,049 · 8,177 · 10,970 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 928 | 867 | 934 | 1,408 | 1,830 | 2,379 | 3,093 | 4,021 | 5,228 |
| growth % | 13.4 | (6.6) | 7.7 | 50.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 279 | 258 | 318 | 457 | 593 | 771 | 1,002 | 1,303 | 1,694 |
| margin % | 30.0 | 29.7 | 34.1 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.4 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (20) | (17) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (53) | (68) | (89) |
| EBIT | 258 | 238 | 302 | 433 | 562 | 730 | 950 | 1,235 | 1,605 |
| less tax on EBIT | (118) | (153) | (199) | (259) | (337) | (438) | |||
| NOPAT | 315 | 409 | 531 | 690 | 898 | 1,167 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 20 | 17 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 53 | 68 | 89 |
| less capex | — | — | 0 | (16) | (20) | (32) | (49) | (73) | (107) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (42) | (55) | (71) | (93) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 169 | — | 387 | 497 | 639 | 822 | 1,056 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 367 | 425 | 493 | 570 | 660 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 433 | 562 | 730 | 950 | 1,235 | 1,605 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 562 | 730 | 950 | 1,235 | 1,605 | |
| Profit after tax | 327 | 409 | 531 | 690 | 898 | 1,167 |
| Dividends | (340) | (409) | (531) | (690) | (898) | (1,167) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 177 | 156 | 122 | 71 | (5) | (115) |
| Working capital | 109 | 141 | 184 | 239 | 310 | 403 |
| Net block and other assets | 555 | 544 | 536 | 532 | 536 | 554 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 525 | 525 | 525 | 525 | 525 | 525 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 407 | 529 | 688 | 894 | 1,163 | |
| Investing (capex) | (20) | (32) | (49) | (73) | (107) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (409) | (531) | (690) | (898) | (1,167) | |
| Net change in cash | (22) | (34) | (51) | (76) | (111) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 387 | 497 | 639 | 822 | 1,056 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 32.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹8,229 | 52.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.