Models
PUNJAB CHEM & CROP PROT LPUNJABCHEMFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹407per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹407implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹1,072.50−62.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹280₹660
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹877₹1,534
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 119 |
| PV of terminal value | 526 |
| Enterprise value | 645 |
| less net debt | (146) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 499 |
| ÷ 1.23 crore shares | ₹407 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 425 | 467 | 519 | 581 | 660 |
| 10.50% | 380 | 416 | 458 | 508 | 569 |
| 11.00% | 342 | 372 | 407 | 448 | 497 |
| 11.50% | 309 | 334 | 364 | 398 | 438 |
| 12.00% | 280 | 302 | 327 | 356 | 389 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,072.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 176 · 400 · 615 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,006 | 934 | 901 | 1,030 | 1,179 | 1,350 | 1,546 | 1,770 | 2,027 |
| growth % | 7.8 | (7.2) | (3.6) | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 123 | 113 | 95 | 116 | 133 | 153 | 175 | 200 | 229 |
| margin % | 12.2 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (22) | (25) | (29) | (33) | (38) | (43) | (50) | (57) |
| EBIT | 104 | 91 | 70 | 87 | 100 | 115 | 131 | 150 | 172 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (24) | (28) | (32) | (36) | (42) | |||
| NOPAT | 66 | 76 | 87 | 100 | 114 | 131 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 43 | 50 | 57 |
| less capex | (37) | (33) | (34) | (46) | (52) | (56) | (60) | (64) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (46) | (52) | (60) | (69) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21 | (3) | (8) | — | 17 | 23 | 31 | 40 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 16 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 154, dividends at 5.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 87 | 100 | 115 | 131 | 150 | 172 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | 84 | 99 | 115 | 134 | 156 | |
| Profit after tax | 64 | 64 | 75 | 88 | 102 | 119 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 52 | 84 |
| Working capital | 276 | 316 | 362 | 415 | 475 | 543 |
| Net block and other assets | 538 | 557 | 575 | 592 | 606 | 618 |
| Debt | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 | 154 |
| Equity | 423 | 484 | 554 | 637 | 733 | 845 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 57 | 67 | 78 | 92 | 107 | |
| Investing (capex) | (52) | (56) | (60) | (64) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 11 | 18 | 27 | 38 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 11.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹407 | (62.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.