Models
R K SWAMY LIMITEDRKSWAMYMedia
₹54per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹54implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹93.95−42.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹45₹73
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹67₹164
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 78 |
| PV of terminal value | 158 |
| Enterprise value | 236 |
| less net debt | 36 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 272 |
| ÷ 5.05 crore shares | ₹54 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 55 | 59 | 62 | 67 | 73 |
| 10.50% | 52 | 55 | 58 | 61 | 66 |
| 11.00% | 49 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 47 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 56 |
| 12.00% | 45 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 53 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹93.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 36 · 53 · 72 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 332 | 294 | 341 | 395 | 459 | 532 | 617 | 716 |
| growth % | — | (11.2) | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 70 | 30 | 40 | 47 | 55 | 63 | 73 | 85 |
| margin % | 21.2 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (15) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (29) | (34) | (39) |
| EBIT | 55 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 46 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) | ||
| NOPAT | 17 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 35 | ||
| add depreciation | 15 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 39 |
| less capex | (2) | (10) | (10) | (12) | (18) | (26) | (35) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (12) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9 | (20) | — | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 21 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 34.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 22 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 46 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 46 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 35 |
| Dividends | (8) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 36 | 51 | 66 | 77 | 86 | 89 |
| Working capital | 40 | 47 | 54 | 63 | 73 | 84 |
| Net block and other assets | 352 | 342 | 335 | 332 | 333 | 341 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 264 | 277 | 292 | 309 | 328 | 351 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 35 | 40 | 46 | 54 | 62 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (18) | (26) | (35) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 15 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹54 | (42.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.