Models
RADICO KHAITAN LTDRADICOBeverages
₹607per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹607implied FY26 P/E 9.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹4,368.10−86.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹454₹911
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,500₹4,747
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,480 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,906 |
| Enterprise value | 8,387 |
| less net debt | (262) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,125 |
| ÷ 13.39 crore shares | ₹607 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 628 | 680 | 741 | 817 | 911 |
| 10.50% | 575 | 617 | 668 | 728 | 802 |
| 11.00% | 529 | 565 | 607 | 656 | 716 |
| 11.50% | 489 | 520 | 555 | 596 | 645 |
| 12.00% | 454 | 481 | 511 | 545 | 586 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,368.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 359 · 597 · 823 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,744 | 15,484 | 17,099 | 20,976 | 25,696 | 31,478 | 38,560 | 47,236 | 57,864 |
| growth % | 2.2 | 21.5 | 10.4 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 358 | 506 | 674 | 1,005 | 1,233 | 1,511 | 1,851 | 2,267 | 2,777 |
| margin % | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| less depreciation | (71) | (114) | (140) | (153) | (180) | (220) | (270) | (331) | (405) |
| EBIT | 287 | 392 | 534 | 852 | 1,054 | 1,291 | 1,581 | 1,937 | 2,372 |
| less tax on EBIT | (214) | (264) | (324) | (397) | (486) | (595) | |||
| NOPAT | 638 | 789 | 967 | 1,184 | 1,451 | 1,777 | |||
| add depreciation | 71 | 114 | 140 | 153 | 180 | 220 | 270 | 331 | 405 |
| less capex | (734) | (252) | (181) | (245) | (308) | (349) | (393) | (439) | (486) |
| less working-capital build | — | (458) | (561) | (687) | (842) | (1,031) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (495) | (69) | 182 | — | 203 | 277 | 374 | 500 | 665 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 192 | 237 | 288 | 347 | 416 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 332, dividends at 8.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 852 | 1,054 | 1,291 | 1,581 | 1,937 | 2,372 |
| Interest at 13.3% on debt | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,009 | 1,246 | 1,537 | 1,893 | 2,328 | |
| Profit after tax | 604 | 756 | 934 | 1,151 | 1,418 | 1,744 |
| Dividends | (54) | (67) | (83) | (102) | (126) | (155) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 70 | 173 | 333 | 572 | 913 | 1,389 |
| Working capital | 2,029 | 2,486 | 3,047 | 3,734 | 4,576 | 5,607 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,873 | 3,001 | 3,130 | 3,254 | 3,362 | 3,443 |
| Debt | 332 | 332 | 332 | 332 | 332 | 332 |
| Equity | 3,316 | 4,004 | 4,855 | 5,904 | 7,195 | 8,784 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 478 | 593 | 734 | 907 | 1,118 | |
| Investing (capex) | (308) | (349) | (393) | (439) | (486) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (67) | (83) | (102) | (126) | (155) | |
| Net change in cash | 102 | 161 | 238 | 341 | 477 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 170 | 244 | 341 | 467 | 632 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 4.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹607 | (86.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.