Models
RAGHAV PRODUCTIVITY ENH LRPELIndustrial Products
₹305per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹305implied FY26 P/E 22.3× · EV/EBITDA 18.6×
Against CMP ₹1,840.00−83.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹231₹454
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹561₹1,944
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 244 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,156 |
| Enterprise value | 1,400 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,402 |
| ÷ 4.59 crore shares | ₹305 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 316 | 341 | 371 | 408 | 454 |
| 10.50% | 290 | 310 | 335 | 365 | 401 |
| 11.00% | 267 | 285 | 305 | 329 | 358 |
| 11.50% | 248 | 263 | 280 | 300 | 324 |
| 12.00% | 231 | 244 | 258 | 275 | 295 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,840.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 230 · 300 · 391 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 137 | 133 | 200 | 257 | 332 | 428 | 552 | 712 | 918 |
| growth % | 37.4 | (3.4) | 50.4 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| EBITDA | 36 | 40 | 54 | 75 | 97 | 125 | 162 | 209 | 269 |
| margin % | 26.1 | 30.2 | 26.9 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (19) | (25) |
| EBIT | 33 | 35 | 47 | 68 | 88 | 114 | 147 | 189 | 244 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (19) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 54 | 69 | 90 | 116 | 149 | 192 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| less capex | (34) | (9) | (13) | (14) | (18) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (27) | (35) | (46) | (59) | (76) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (14) | 11 | 25 | — | 33 | 45 | 61 | 82 | 111 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 31 | 38 | 47 | 57 | 70 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 68 | 88 | 114 | 147 | 189 | 244 |
| Interest at 11.5% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 88 | 113 | 146 | 189 | 244 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 69 | 89 | 115 | 149 | 192 |
| Dividends | (5) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 40 | 84 | 145 | 227 | 337 |
| Working capital | 95 | 122 | 157 | 203 | 262 | 338 |
| Net block and other assets | 182 | 191 | 200 | 209 | 217 | 222 |
| Debt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Equity | 245 | 313 | 403 | 518 | 666 | 858 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 50 | 65 | 84 | 109 | 141 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 44 | 60 | 82 | 111 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 33 | 44 | 60 | 82 | 111 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 29% | 29.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹305 | (83.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.