Models
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITEDRVNLConstruction
₹12per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹12implied FY26 P/E 2.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹204.90−94.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹5₹26
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹204₹401
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,740 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,975 |
| Enterprise value | 6,715 |
| less net debt | (4,257) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,458 |
| ÷ 208.50 crore shares | ₹12 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| 10.50% | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 21 |
| 11.00% | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| 11.50% | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| 12.00% | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹204.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 12 · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,282 | 21,889 | 19,923 | 20,412 | 20,922 | 21,445 | 21,982 | 22,531 | 23,094 |
| growth % | 4.6 | 7.9 | (9.0) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,247 | 1,353 | 1,125 | 767 | 795 | 815 | 835 | 856 | 878 |
| margin % | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (21) | (31) | (36) | (42) | (43) | (44) | (45) | (46) |
| EBIT | 1,224 | 1,332 | 1,094 | 731 | 753 | 772 | 791 | 811 | 831 |
| less tax on EBIT | (209) | (215) | (221) | (226) | (232) | (238) | |||
| NOPAT | 522 | 538 | 551 | 565 | 579 | 594 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 21 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 |
| less capex | (10) | (116) | (432) | (61) | (63) | (61) | (59) | (57) | (55) |
| less working-capital build | — | (95) | (98) | (100) | (103) | (105) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4,086) | 2,838 | 1,446 | — | 421 | 435 | 449 | 464 | 479 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 400 | 372 | 346 | 322 | 300 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,814, dividends at 65.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 731 | 753 | 772 | 791 | 811 | 831 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (395) | (395) | (395) | (395) | (395) | |
| Profit before tax | 358 | 377 | 397 | 416 | 437 | |
| Profit after tax | 875 | 256 | 269 | 283 | 297 | 312 |
| Dividends | (573) | (168) | (176) | (185) | (195) | (204) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 556 | 528 | 505 | 487 | 475 | 468 |
| Working capital | 3,808 | 3,904 | 4,002 | 4,102 | 4,205 | 4,310 |
| Net block and other assets | 17,337 | 17,358 | 17,376 | 17,392 | 17,404 | 17,413 |
| Debt | 4,814 | 4,814 | 4,814 | 4,814 | 4,814 | 4,814 |
| Equity | 9,818 | 9,906 | 9,999 | 10,097 | 10,200 | 10,307 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 202 | 214 | 227 | 240 | 253 | |
| Investing (capex) | (63) | (61) | (59) | (57) | (55) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (168) | (176) | (185) | (195) | (204) | |
| Net change in cash | (28) | (23) | (18) | (13) | (7) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 140 | 153 | 168 | 182 | 197 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 3.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹12 | (94.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.