Models
RAILTEL CORP OF IND LTDRAILTELTelecom - Services
₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY23 P/E 7.7× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹261.00−81.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2879%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹38₹68
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹245₹413
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY24–FY28 free cash flow | 285 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,075 |
| Enterprise value | 1,360 |
| less net debt | 188 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,548 |
| ÷ 32.09 crore shares | ₹48 |
79% of the value sits after FY28. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 68 |
| 10.50% | 46 | 49 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
| 11.00% | 43 | 46 | 48 | 51 | 55 |
| 11.50% | 41 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 47 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹261.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1 · 48 · 85 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,378 | 1,548 | 1,964 | 2,494 | 3,167 | 4,022 | 5,108 | 6,487 |
| growth % | — | 12.4 | 26.8 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| EBITDA | 327 | 367 | 376 | 479 | 608 | 772 | 981 | 1,246 |
| margin % | 23.7 | 23.7 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (159) | (160) | (154) | (197) | (250) | (318) | (404) | (512) |
| EBIT | 168 | 207 | 222 | 282 | 358 | 454 | 577 | 733 |
| less tax on EBIT | (57) | (73) | (92) | (117) | (149) | (189) | ||
| NOPAT | 165 | 209 | 266 | 337 | 428 | 544 | ||
| add depreciation | 159 | 160 | 154 | 197 | 250 | 318 | 404 | 512 |
| less capex | (80) | (116) | (177) | (224) | (289) | (372) | (478) | (615) |
| less working-capital build | — | (130) | (165) | (209) | (266) | (338) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 269 | 148 | — | 52 | 62 | 74 | 88 | 104 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 49 | 53 | 57 | 61 | 65 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 36.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 222 | 282 | 358 | 454 | 577 | 733 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 282 | 358 | 454 | 577 | 733 | |
| Profit after tax | 189 | 209 | 266 | 337 | 428 | 544 |
| Dividends | (69) | (76) | (97) | (123) | (156) | (199) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 188 | 163 | 128 | 79 | 11 | (84) |
| Working capital | 480 | 610 | 775 | 985 | 1,251 | 1,589 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,671 | 2,698 | 2,737 | 2,791 | 2,865 | 2,968 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,649 | 1,782 | 1,950 | 2,164 | 2,436 | 2,782 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 276 | 351 | 445 | 566 | 719 | |
| Investing (capex) | (224) | (289) | (372) | (478) | (615) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (76) | (97) | (123) | (156) | (199) | |
| Net change in cash | (25) | (35) | (49) | (69) | (95) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 52 | 62 | 74 | 88 | 104 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY23 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (81.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.