Models
RAJ RAYON INDUSTRIES LTDRAJRILTDTextiles & Apparels
₹31per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹31implied FY26 P/E 41.3× · EV/EBITDA 30.7×
Against CMP ₹21.00+49.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies20.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹49
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹29
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 282 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,673 |
| Enterprise value | 1,955 |
| less net debt | (210) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,745 |
| ÷ 55.61 crore shares | ₹31 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 33 | 36 | 39 | 44 | 49 |
| 10.50% | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 43 |
| 11.00% | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 38 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 34 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹21.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 21 · 31 · 45 |
| Draws below the CMP | 10% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.43 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 137 | 745 | 849 | 1,180 | 1,534 | 1,994 | 2,592 | 3,369 | 4,380 |
| growth % | 249398.0 | 443.0 | 14.0 | 38.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 27 | 30 | 64 | 83 | 108 | 140 | 182 | 237 |
| margin % | 1.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (11) | (12) | (18) | (25) | (32) | (41) | (54) | (70) |
| EBIT | (12) | 16 | 17 | 45 | 58 | 76 | 98 | 128 | 166 |
| less tax on EBIT | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | |||
| NOPAT | 48 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 175 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 32 | 41 | 54 | 70 |
| less capex | (65) | (92) | (105) | (48) | (63) | (71) | (78) | (83) | (84) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (140) | (14) | (69) | — | 23 | 41 | 67 | 106 | 161 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 35 | 52 | 73 | 101 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 222, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 45 | 58 | 76 | 98 | 128 | 166 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 41 | 58 | 81 | 111 | 149 | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | 43 | 61 | 85 | 116 | 157 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 17 | 40 | 88 | 176 | 319 |
| Working capital | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) |
| Net block and other assets | 646 | 685 | 724 | 760 | 789 | 803 |
| Debt | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 |
| Equity | 156 | 200 | 261 | 346 | 463 | 620 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 93 | 127 | 170 | 227 | |
| Investing (capex) | (63) | (71) | (78) | (83) | (84) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 22 | 49 | 87 | 143 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 22 | 49 | 87 | 143 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 5.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹31 | 49.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.