Models
RALLIS INDIA LTDRALLISFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹79per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹79implied FY22 P/E 9.4× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹201.76−60.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2783%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹59₹120
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹202₹349
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 263 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,307 |
| Enterprise value | 1,570 |
| less net debt | (69) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,501 |
| ÷ 19.00 crore shares | ₹79 |
83% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 82 | 89 | 97 | 107 | 120 |
| 10.50% | 75 | 80 | 87 | 95 | 105 |
| 11.00% | 69 | 73 | 79 | 86 | 94 |
| 11.50% | 63 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 84 |
| 12.00% | 59 | 62 | 66 | 71 | 76 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹201.76; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 56 · 78 · 103 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,984 | 2,252 | 2,429 | 2,604 | 2,786 | 2,981 | 3,190 | 3,413 | 3,652 |
| growth % | — | 13.5 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 241 | 271 | 332 | 274 | 293 | 313 | 335 | 358 | 383 |
| margin % | 12.1 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (46) | (62) | (64) | (74) | (81) | (86) | (93) | (99) | (106) |
| EBIT | 195 | 209 | 268 | 200 | 212 | 227 | 242 | 259 | 278 |
| less tax on EBIT | (52) | (55) | (59) | (64) | (68) | (73) | |||
| NOPAT | 147 | 156 | 167 | 179 | 191 | 205 | |||
| add depreciation | 46 | 62 | 64 | 74 | 81 | 86 | 93 | 99 | 106 |
| less capex | — | — | (143) | (156) | (167) | (160) | (151) | (140) | (127) |
| less working-capital build | — | (44) | (47) | (51) | (54) | (58) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 74 | — | 26 | 46 | 70 | 96 | 126 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 24 | 40 | 54 | 67 | 79 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 80, dividends at 35.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 200 | 212 | 227 | 242 | 259 | 278 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 206 | 221 | 237 | 254 | 272 | |
| Profit after tax | 164 | 152 | 163 | 175 | 187 | 201 |
| Dividends | (59) | (54) | (58) | (62) | (67) | (71) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (22) | (38) | (34) | (9) | 41 |
| Working capital | 631 | 675 | 723 | 773 | 827 | 885 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,216 | 2,302 | 2,376 | 2,435 | 2,476 | 2,497 |
| Debt | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Equity | 1,697 | 1,795 | 1,900 | 2,012 | 2,133 | 2,262 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 189 | 202 | 217 | 232 | 249 | |
| Investing (capex) | (167) | (160) | (151) | (140) | (127) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (54) | (58) | (62) | (67) | (71) | |
| Net change in cash | (32) | (16) | 3 | 25 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 42 | 66 | 92 | 122 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹79 | (60.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.