Models
RAMA PHOSPHATES LIMITEDRAMAPHOFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹212per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹212implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹123.00+72.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(18.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹150₹336
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹104₹217
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 145 |
| PV of terminal value | 741 |
| Enterprise value | 886 |
| less net debt | (137) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 749 |
| ÷ 3.53 crore shares | ₹212 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 221 | 241 | 267 | 297 | 336 |
| 10.50% | 199 | 216 | 237 | 261 | 291 |
| 11.00% | 180 | 195 | 212 | 232 | 256 |
| 11.50% | 164 | 177 | 191 | 208 | 227 |
| 12.00% | 150 | 161 | 173 | 187 | 203 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹123.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 141 · 208 · 281 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 875 | 603 | 744 | 893 | 1,072 | 1,286 | 1,543 | 1,852 | 2,222 |
| growth % | (0.4) | (31.1) | 23.3 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 72 | (20) | — | 87 | 105 | 126 | 151 | 181 | 218 |
| margin % | 8.2 | (3.4) | — | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (9) | — | (8) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (20) |
| EBIT | 62 | (29) | — | 80 | 95 | 114 | 137 | 165 | 198 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (24) | (29) | (34) | (41) | (49) | |||
| NOPAT | 60 | 72 | 86 | 103 | 124 | 148 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 9 | — | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 |
| less capex | (10) | (8) | (7) | (25) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (28) | (24) |
| less working-capital build | — | (35) | (42) | (51) | (61) | (73) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (46) | (13) | 32 | — | 16 | 25 | 36 | 52 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 21 | 28 | 36 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 137, dividends at 2.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 80 | 95 | 114 | 137 | 165 | 198 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 85 | 104 | 127 | 154 | 187 | |
| Profit after tax | 53 | 64 | 78 | 95 | 116 | 140 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 88 | 148 |
| Working capital | 176 | 211 | 253 | 304 | 365 | 438 |
| Net block and other assets | 543 | 564 | 582 | 598 | 610 | 614 |
| Debt | 137 | 137 | 137 | 137 | 137 | 137 |
| Equity | 422 | 484 | 560 | 653 | 766 | 902 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 38 | 47 | 58 | 71 | 87 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (28) | (24) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 15 | 26 | 41 | 60 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8 | 17 | 28 | 43 | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹212 | 72.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.