Models
RAMCO INDUSTRIES LIMITEDRAMCOINDOther Construction Materials
₹174per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹174implied FY26 P/E 4.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹323.00−46.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹133₹256
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹231₹398
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 369 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,197 |
| Enterprise value | 1,566 |
| less net debt | (55) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,511 |
| ÷ 8.68 crore shares | ₹174 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 180 | 194 | 210 | 230 | 256 |
| 10.50% | 166 | 177 | 191 | 207 | 227 |
| 11.00% | 153 | 163 | 174 | 187 | 203 |
| 11.50% | 143 | 151 | 160 | 171 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 133 | 140 | 148 | 158 | 168 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹323.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 129 · 173 · 220 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,458 | 1,501 | 1,659 | 1,792 | 1,936 | 2,090 | 2,258 | 2,438 | 2,633 |
| growth % | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 155 | 156 | 179 | 240 | 259 | 280 | 303 | 327 | 353 |
| margin % | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| less depreciation | (34) | (37) | (36) | (37) | (41) | (44) | (47) | (51) | (55) |
| EBIT | 121 | 119 | 143 | 203 | 219 | 236 | 255 | 276 | 298 |
| less tax on EBIT | (66) | (71) | (76) | (82) | (89) | (96) | |||
| NOPAT | 137 | 148 | 160 | 173 | 187 | 201 | |||
| add depreciation | 34 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 55 |
| less capex | (63) | (34) | (29) | (51) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (63) | (66) |
| less working-capital build | — | (55) | (60) | (64) | (70) | (75) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (106) | 101 | 103 | — | 79 | 87 | 96 | 105 | 115 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 75 | 75 | 74 | 73 | 72 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 169, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 203 | 219 | 236 | 255 | 276 | 298 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 205 | 222 | 241 | 261 | 284 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 139 | 150 | 163 | 177 | 192 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 115 | 185 | 262 | 348 | 444 | 550 |
| Working capital | 690 | 745 | 805 | 869 | 939 | 1,014 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,172 | 4,186 | 4,199 | 4,212 | 4,224 | 4,235 |
| Debt | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 |
| Equity | 4,522 | 4,661 | 4,811 | 4,974 | 5,151 | 5,343 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 124 | 135 | 146 | 159 | 172 | |
| Investing (capex) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (63) | (66) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 70 | 78 | 86 | 96 | 106 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 70 | 78 | 86 | 96 | 106 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 13.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹174 | (46.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.