Models
RAMKRISHNA FORGINGS LTDRKFORGEAuto Components
₹-40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(40)implied FY26 P/E (6.7)× · EV/EBITDA 2.3×
Against CMP ₹714.95−105.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31138%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(72)₹25
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹460₹773
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (556) |
| PV of terminal value | 2,006 |
| Enterprise value | 1,450 |
| less net debt | (2,173) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (723) |
| ÷ 18.19 crore shares | ₹(40) |
138% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (36) | (25) | (12) | 4 | 25 |
| 10.50% | (47) | (38) | (27) | (14) | 2 |
| 11.00% | (56) | (49) | (40) | (29) | (16) |
| 11.50% | (65) | (58) | (50) | (42) | (31) |
| 12.00% | (72) | (66) | (60) | (52) | (44) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹714.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (98) · (41) · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.27 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,193 | 3,955 | 4,034 | 4,238 | 4,450 | 4,672 | 4,906 | 5,151 | 5,409 |
| growth % | 37.6 | 23.9 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 692 | 839 | 558 | 632 | 663 | 696 | 731 | 768 | 806 |
| margin % | 21.7 | 21.2 | 13.8 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (202) | (258) | (271) | (333) | (352) | (369) | (388) | (407) | (427) |
| EBIT | 491 | 582 | 287 | 299 | 311 | 327 | 343 | 361 | 379 |
| less tax on EBIT | (36) | (37) | (39) | (41) | (43) | (45) | |||
| NOPAT | 263 | 274 | 288 | 302 | 317 | 333 | |||
| add depreciation | 202 | 258 | 271 | 333 | 352 | 369 | 388 | 407 | 427 |
| less capex | (357) | (589) | (977) | (924) | (970) | (875) | (767) | (647) | (513) |
| less working-capital build | — | (45) | (47) | (50) | (52) | (55) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 389 | 32 | (944) | — | (389) | (265) | (127) | 25 | 193 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (370) | (227) | (98) | 18 | 121 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,335, dividends at 25.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 299 | 311 | 327 | 343 | 361 | 379 |
| Interest at 9.7% on debt | (226) | (226) | (226) | (226) | (226) | |
| Profit before tax | 85 | 101 | 117 | 134 | 152 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 75 | 89 | 103 | 118 | 134 |
| Dividends | (18) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (30) | (34) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 162 | (445) | (932) | (1,284) | (1,488) | (1,528) |
| Working capital | 896 | 941 | 988 | 1,038 | 1,090 | 1,145 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,119 | 6,738 | 7,243 | 7,623 | 7,863 | 7,949 |
| Debt | 2,335 | 2,335 | 2,335 | 2,335 | 2,335 | 2,335 |
| Equity | 3,290 | 3,346 | 3,413 | 3,490 | 3,578 | 3,678 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 381 | 410 | 441 | 473 | 507 | |
| Investing (capex) | (970) | (875) | (767) | (647) | (513) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (30) | (34) | |
| Net change in cash | (608) | (487) | (352) | (204) | (40) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (589) | (464) | (326) | (174) | (6) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(40) | (105.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.