Models
RATEGAIN TRAVEL TECHN LTDRATEGAINIT - Software
₹371per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹371implied FY26 P/E 18.1× · EV/EBITDA 17.0×
Against CMP ₹878.55−57.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹273₹567
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹437₹1,050
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,221 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,918 |
| Enterprise value | 5,139 |
| less net debt | (748) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,391 |
| ÷ 11.84 crore shares | ₹371 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 385 | 418 | 458 | 506 | 567 |
| 10.50% | 351 | 378 | 410 | 449 | 497 |
| 11.00% | 321 | 344 | 371 | 403 | 441 |
| 11.50% | 295 | 315 | 338 | 364 | 395 |
| 12.00% | 273 | 290 | 309 | 331 | 357 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹878.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 254 · 363 · 510 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 565 | 957 | 1,077 | 1,824 | 2,371 | 3,082 | 4,006 | 5,208 | 6,771 |
| growth % | 54.2 | 69.3 | 12.5 | 69.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 85 | 190 | 232 | 303 | 394 | 512 | 665 | 865 | 1,124 |
| margin % | 15.0 | 19.8 | 21.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (41) | (35) | (81) | (104) | (136) | (176) | (229) | (298) |
| EBIT | 49 | 149 | 197 | 222 | 289 | 376 | 489 | 635 | 826 |
| less tax on EBIT | (51) | (66) | (86) | (112) | (146) | (189) | |||
| NOPAT | 171 | 223 | 290 | 377 | 490 | 637 | |||
| add depreciation | 36 | 41 | 35 | 81 | 104 | 136 | 176 | 229 | 298 |
| less capex | (4) | (4) | (6) | (4) | (5) | (45) | (110) | (209) | (357) |
| less working-capital build | — | (70) | (91) | (118) | (154) | (200) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 47 | 148 | 113 | — | 253 | 289 | 325 | 356 | 377 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 240 | 247 | 250 | 247 | 236 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 921, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 222 | 289 | 376 | 489 | 635 | 826 |
| Interest at 3.4% on debt | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | |
| Profit before tax | 258 | 345 | 457 | 604 | 795 | |
| Profit after tax | 194 | 199 | 266 | 353 | 466 | 613 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 173 | 401 | 666 | 967 | 1,300 | 1,653 |
| Working capital | 233 | 303 | 394 | 513 | 667 | 867 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,153 | 3,054 | 2,963 | 2,897 | 2,877 | 2,936 |
| Debt | 921 | 921 | 921 | 921 | 921 | 921 |
| Equity | 2,006 | 2,205 | 2,470 | 2,823 | 3,289 | 3,902 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 233 | 310 | 411 | 541 | 711 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (45) | (110) | (209) | (357) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 228 | 265 | 301 | 332 | 353 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 228 | 265 | 301 | 332 | 353 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹371 | (57.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.