Models
RATHI STEEL & POWER LTD.BSE 504903Industrial Products
₹63per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹63implied FY26 P/E 25.0× · EV/EBITDA 20.7×
Against CMP ₹22.00+187.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.4)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹46₹98
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹14₹29
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 73 |
| PV of terminal value | 516 |
| Enterprise value | 588 |
| less net debt | (43) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 545 |
| ÷ 8.64 crore shares | ₹63 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 66 | 72 | 79 | 87 | 98 |
| 10.50% | 59 | 64 | 70 | 77 | 86 |
| 11.00% | 54 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 76 |
| 11.50% | 50 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 68 |
| 12.00% | 46 | 49 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹22.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 43 · 62 · 88 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 727 | 493 | 503 | 716 | 931 | 1,210 | 1,573 | 2,045 | 2,659 |
| growth % | 33.9 | (32.2) | 2.1 | 42.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 41 | 27 | 28 | 37 | 48 | 63 | 82 | 106 |
| margin % | 4.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (10) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) | (32) |
| EBIT | 23 | 32 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 | 74 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| NOPAT | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 | 74 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 32 |
| less capex | (7) | (13) | (23) | (22) | (29) | (32) | (36) | (38) | (38) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 98 | 11 | (34) | — | 2 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 50 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 31 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 | 74 |
| Interest at 18% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 26 | 36 | 49 | 66 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 18 | 26 | 36 | 49 | 66 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (4) | (4) | 4 | 26 | 67 |
| Working capital | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 | 79 |
| Net block and other assets | 304 | 321 | 339 | 356 | 370 | 376 |
| Debt | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Equity | 150 | 168 | 194 | 230 | 279 | 345 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 32 | 44 | 60 | 80 | |
| Investing (capex) | (29) | (32) | (36) | (38) | (38) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (6) | (1) | 8 | 22 | 42 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6) | (1) | 8 | 22 | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹63 | 187.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.