Models
RAYMOND REALTY LIMITEDRAYMONDRELRealty
₹251per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹251implied FY26 P/E 5.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹584.00−57.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹165₹422
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹349₹735
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 485 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,934 |
| Enterprise value | 2,419 |
| less net debt | (749) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,670 |
| ÷ 6.66 crore shares | ₹251 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 263 | 292 | 327 | 369 | 422 |
| 10.50% | 233 | 257 | 285 | 320 | 361 |
| 11.00% | 207 | 227 | 251 | 279 | 312 |
| 11.50% | 185 | 202 | 222 | 245 | 272 |
| 12.00% | 165 | 180 | 197 | 216 | 239 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹584.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 76 · 248 · 408 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,991 | 3,230 | 3,488 | 3,768 | 4,069 | 4,394 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 447 | 481 | 520 | 561 | 606 | 655 |
| margin % | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (33) | (35) |
| EBIT | 424 | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 |
| less tax on EBIT | (79) | (85) | (92) | (99) | (107) | (116) |
| NOPAT | 344 | 370 | 400 | 432 | 466 | 504 |
| add depreciation | 23 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 35 |
| less capex | (80) | (87) | (79) | (69) | (57) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (228) | (247) | (266) | (288) | (311) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 81 | 102 | 127 | 155 | 186 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 77 | 87 | 98 | 107 | 116 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,014, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 424 | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 |
| Interest at 9.6% on debt | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | |
| Profit before tax | 358 | 395 | 434 | 476 | 522 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 291 | 321 | 353 | 387 | 425 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 265 | 267 | 290 | 338 | 413 | 520 |
| Working capital | 2,852 | 3,081 | 3,327 | 3,593 | 3,881 | 4,191 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,945 | 4,006 | 4,057 | 4,096 | 4,120 | 4,127 |
| Debt | 1,014 | 1,014 | 1,014 | 1,014 | 1,014 | 1,014 |
| Equity | 1,567 | 1,859 | 2,179 | 2,532 | 2,919 | 3,344 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 89 | 102 | 117 | 132 | 149 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (79) | (69) | (57) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 23 | 48 | 76 | 107 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 23 | 48 | 76 | 107 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹251 | (57.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.