Models
REFEX INDUSTRIES LIMITEDREFEXOther Utilities
₹229per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹229implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹273.50−16.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹182₹323
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹188₹415
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 960 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,165 |
| Enterprise value | 3,125 |
| less net debt | 22 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,147 |
| ÷ 13.72 crore shares | ₹229 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 236 | 252 | 271 | 294 | 323 |
| 10.50% | 220 | 233 | 248 | 267 | 289 |
| 11.00% | 206 | 217 | 229 | 245 | 263 |
| 11.50% | 193 | 202 | 213 | 226 | 241 |
| 12.00% | 182 | 190 | 200 | 210 | 223 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹273.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 199 · 230 · 267 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.76 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,629 | 1,383 | 2,468 | 2,277 | 2,163 | 2,055 | 1,952 | 1,854 | 1,762 |
| growth % | 157.5 | (15.1) | 78.4 | (7.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 174 | 146 | 210 | 357 | 340 | 323 | 306 | 291 | 277 |
| margin % | 10.7 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (14) | (33) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) | (16) |
| EBIT | 168 | 132 | 177 | 337 | 320 | 304 | 289 | 274 | 261 |
| less tax on EBIT | (90) | (85) | (81) | (77) | (73) | (69) | |||
| NOPAT | 247 | 235 | 223 | 212 | 201 | 191 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 14 | 33 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| less capex | (72) | (38) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (6) | (11) | (15) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | 25 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (44) | (35) | (265) | — | 279 | 260 | 242 | 224 | 209 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 265 | 222 | 186 | 156 | 130 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 162, dividends at 3.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 337 | 320 | 304 | 289 | 274 | 261 |
| Interest at 19.2% on debt | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | |
| Profit before tax | 289 | 273 | 258 | 243 | 230 | |
| Profit after tax | 203 | 212 | 200 | 189 | 179 | 169 |
| Dividends | (6) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 184 | 433 | 664 | 877 | 1,073 | 1,253 |
| Working capital | 498 | 473 | 449 | 427 | 405 | 385 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,161 | 2,142 | 2,129 | 2,122 | 2,120 | 2,123 |
| Debt | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Equity | 1,509 | 1,714 | 1,908 | 2,091 | 2,264 | 2,427 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 257 | 243 | 229 | 217 | 205 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (6) | (11) | (15) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 250 | 231 | 213 | 196 | 180 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 257 | 237 | 219 | 202 | 186 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹229 | (16.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.