₹79per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹79implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹324.20−75.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹63₹110
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹237₹504
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 629 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,314 |
| Enterprise value | 1,944 |
| less net debt | 18 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,962 |
| ÷ 24.89 crore shares | ₹79 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 81 | 86 | 93 | 101 | 110 |
| 10.50% | 76 | 80 | 85 | 91 | 99 |
| 11.00% | 71 | 75 | 79 | 84 | 90 |
| 11.50% | 67 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 83 |
| 12.00% | 63 | 66 | 69 | 72 | 77 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹324.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 63 · 79 · 96 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,783 | 2,914 | 2,790 | 2,702 | 2,621 | 2,542 | 2,466 | 2,392 | 2,320 |
| growth % | 4.9 | 4.7 | (4.3) | (3.1) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) |
| EBITDA | 336 | 407 | 382 | 374 | 362 | 351 | 340 | 330 | 320 |
| margin % | 12.1 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (125) | (147) | (158) | (157) | (152) | (147) | (143) | (139) | (135) |
| EBIT | 211 | 259 | 224 | 217 | 210 | 203 | 197 | 191 | 186 |
| less tax on EBIT | (56) | (54) | (52) | (51) | (49) | (48) | |||
| NOPAT | 161 | 156 | 151 | 146 | 142 | 138 | |||
| add depreciation | 125 | 147 | 158 | 157 | 152 | 147 | 143 | 139 | 135 |
| less capex | (177) | (248) | (115) | (136) | (134) | (141) | (149) | (155) | (162) |
| less working-capital build | — | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 223 | (13) | 291 | — | 192 | 174 | 157 | 142 | 127 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 182 | 149 | 121 | 98 | 79 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 41.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 217 | 210 | 203 | 197 | 191 | 186 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 210 | 203 | 197 | 191 | 186 | |
| Profit after tax | 179 | 156 | 151 | 146 | 142 | 138 |
| Dividends | (75) | (65) | (63) | (61) | (59) | (57) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 18 | 144 | 256 | 352 | 434 | 504 |
| Working capital | 593 | 575 | 558 | 541 | 525 | 509 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,338 | 2,320 | 2,314 | 2,320 | 2,336 | 2,363 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,206 | 2,297 | 2,385 | 2,470 | 2,553 | 2,633 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 325 | 316 | 306 | 297 | 288 | |
| Investing (capex) | (134) | (141) | (149) | (155) | (162) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (65) | (63) | (61) | (59) | (57) | |
| Net change in cash | 127 | 111 | 96 | 82 | 69 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 192 | 174 | 157 | 142 | 127 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹79 | (75.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.