RELIANCE CHEMOTEX IND LTD — valuation model

RELIANCE CHEMOTEX IND LTDRELCHEMQTextiles & Apparels

₹174per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹174implied FY26 P/E 23.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×

Against CMP ₹109.00+59.8%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies(8.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹70₹382

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹105₹168

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	134
PV of terminal value	263
Enterprise value	397
less net debt	(266)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	131
÷ 0.75 crore shares	₹174

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	190	225	267	318	382
10.50%	153	182	216	257	307
11.00%	121	146	174	208	248
11.50%	94	115	139	166	199
12.00%	70	88	108	131	159

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹109.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	75 · 172 · 281
Draws below the CMP	21%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.83
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.52
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.00

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	365	367	359	362	366	369	373	377	380
growth %	0.9	0.6	(2.3)	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
EBITDA	34	31	32	41	41	41	42	42	43
margin %	9.4	8.5	9.0	11.2	11.2	11.2	11.2	11.2	11.2
less depreciation	(10)	(10)	(15)	(15)	(15)	(15)	(15)	(15)	(16)
EBIT	24	21	18	26	26	26	26	27	27
less tax on EBIT				2	2	2	2	2	2
NOPAT				28	28	29	29	29	29
add depreciation	10	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	16
less capex	(54)	(93)	(9)	(1)	(1)	(5)	(10)	(14)	(19)
less working-capital build				—	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Free cash flow to firm	(54)	(75)	2	—	42	38	34	30	25
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					40	32	26	21	16

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 267, dividends at 7.2% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	26	26	26	26	27	27
Interest at 9.4% on debt		(25)	(25)	(25)	(25)	(25)
Profit before tax		1	1	1	2	2
Profit after tax	5	1	1	2	2	2
Dividends	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	15	25	31	33	31
Working capital	85	86	87	87	88	89
Net block and other assets	427	412	402	397	395	398
Debt	267	267	267	267	267	267
Equity	143	144	145	146	148	150
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		15	16	16	16	17
Investing (capex)		(1)	(5)	(10)	(14)	(19)
Financing (dividends)		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Net change in cash		14	10	6	2	(2)
Free cash flow to equity		14	10	6	2	(2)

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	1%	11.2%	11.00%	5%	₹174	59.8%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.