Models
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTDRELIANCEPetroleum Products
₹935per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹935implied FY26 P/E 16.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹1,257.50−25.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies16.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹663₹1,477
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,250₹1,612
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,49,182 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,43,933 |
| Enterprise value | 14,93,114 |
| less net debt | (2,28,444) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,64,670 |
| ÷ 1,353.30 crore shares | ₹935 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 973 | 1,065 | 1,175 | 1,309 | 1,477 |
| 10.50% | 877 | 954 | 1,043 | 1,151 | 1,283 |
| 11.00% | 796 | 860 | 935 | 1,023 | 1,129 |
| 11.50% | 725 | 780 | 842 | 916 | 1,003 |
| 12.00% | 663 | 710 | 764 | 826 | 898 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,257.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 672 · 925 · 1,226 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,92,944 | 9,14,472 | 9,80,136 | 10,75,675 | 11,77,864 | 12,89,761 | 14,12,289 | 15,46,456 | 16,93,369 |
| growth % | 23.7 | 2.4 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,42,908 | 1,62,233 | 1,65,444 | 1,78,949 | 1,95,525 | 2,14,100 | 2,34,440 | 2,56,712 | 2,81,099 |
| margin % | 16.0 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (40,319) | (50,832) | (53,136) | (57,688) | (63,605) | (69,647) | (76,264) | (83,509) | (91,442) |
| EBIT | 1,02,589 | 1,11,401 | 1,12,308 | 1,21,261 | 1,31,921 | 1,44,453 | 1,58,176 | 1,73,203 | 1,89,657 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27,162) | (29,550) | (32,358) | (35,431) | (38,797) | (42,483) | |||
| NOPAT | 94,099 | 1,02,371 | 1,12,096 | 1,22,745 | 1,34,406 | 1,47,174 | |||
| add depreciation | 40,319 | 50,832 | 53,136 | 57,688 | 63,605 | 69,647 | 76,264 | 83,509 | 91,442 |
| less capex | (1,40,988) | (1,52,883) | (1,39,967) | (1,22,916) | (1,34,277) | (1,31,169) | (1,26,259) | (1,19,232) | (1,09,730) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6,336) | (6,938) | (7,597) | (8,318) | (9,109) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (25,956) | 5,905 | 38,736 | — | 25,363 | 43,636 | 65,153 | 90,364 | 1,19,777 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 24,073 | 37,313 | 50,191 | 62,714 | 74,889 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,74,421, dividends at 9.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,21,261 | 1,31,921 | 1,44,453 | 1,58,176 | 1,73,203 | 1,89,657 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (28,082) | (28,082) | (28,082) | (28,082) | (28,082) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,03,839 | 1,16,372 | 1,30,095 | 1,45,121 | 1,61,576 | |
| Profit after tax | 80,775 | 80,579 | 90,304 | 1,00,954 | 1,12,614 | 1,25,383 |
| Dividends | (7,879) | (7,897) | (8,850) | (9,893) | (11,036) | (12,288) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,45,977 | 1,41,652 | 1,54,647 | 1,88,116 | 2,45,652 | 3,31,350 |
| Working capital | 66,603 | 72,939 | 79,877 | 87,473 | 95,792 | 1,04,900 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,65,560 | 20,36,231 | 20,97,753 | 21,47,748 | 21,83,471 | 22,01,760 |
| Debt | 3,74,421 | 3,74,421 | 3,74,421 | 3,74,421 | 3,74,421 | 3,74,421 |
| Equity | 10,85,866 | 11,58,548 | 12,40,003 | 13,31,063 | 14,32,641 | 15,45,736 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,37,848 | 1,53,014 | 1,69,620 | 1,87,805 | 2,07,716 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,34,277) | (1,31,169) | (1,26,259) | (1,19,232) | (1,09,730) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7,897) | (8,850) | (9,893) | (11,036) | (12,288) | |
| Net change in cash | (4,325) | 12,995 | 33,468 | 57,537 | 85,698 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,572 | 21,845 | 43,362 | 68,573 | 97,986 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹935 | (25.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.