Models
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTDRELINFRAPower
₹-35per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(35)implied FY26 P/E (0.4)× · EV/EBITDA 0.8×
Against CMP ₹53.66−165.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(43)₹(19)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹55₹274
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 589 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,076 |
| Enterprise value | 1,665 |
| less net debt | (3,095) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (1,430) |
| ÷ 40.87 crore shares | ₹(35) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (34) | (31) | (28) | (24) | (19) |
| 10.50% | (37) | (34) | (32) | (29) | (25) |
| 11.00% | (39) | (37) | (35) | (32) | (29) |
| 11.50% | (41) | (39) | (38) | (36) | (33) |
| 12.00% | (43) | (42) | (40) | (38) | (36) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹53.66; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (78) · (34) · 8 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.10 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,646 | 22,067 | 23,592 | 20,441 | 19,419 | 18,448 | 17,525 | 16,649 | 15,816 |
| growth % | 12.1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | (13.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (1,173) | 2,041 | 4,856 | 2,037 | 1,942 | 1,845 | 1,753 | 1,665 | 1,582 |
| margin % | (5.7) | 9.2 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (1,449) | (1,503) | (1,421) | (1,466) | (1,398) | (1,328) | (1,262) | (1,199) | (1,139) |
| EBIT | (2,622) | 538 | 3,435 | 571 | 544 | 517 | 491 | 466 | 443 |
| less tax on EBIT | (144) | (137) | (130) | (124) | (117) | (111) | |||
| NOPAT | 427 | 407 | 387 | 367 | 349 | 331 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,449 | 1,503 | 1,421 | 1,466 | 1,398 | 1,328 | 1,262 | 1,199 | 1,139 |
| less capex | (981) | (927) | (1,322) | (1,693) | (1,612) | (1,547) | (1,484) | (1,424) | (1,367) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,477 | 3,171 | 2,335 | — | 193 | 168 | 145 | 123 | 104 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 183 | 144 | 111 | 86 | 65 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,804, dividends at 0.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 571 | 544 | 517 | 491 | 466 | 443 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (384) | (384) | (384) | (384) | (384) | |
| Profit before tax | 159 | 132 | 106 | 82 | 59 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,900 | 119 | 99 | 80 | 61 | 44 |
| Dividends | (22) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,709 | 1,614 | 1,493 | 1,350 | 1,185 | 1,001 |
| Working capital | (15,899) | (15,899) | (15,899) | (15,899) | (15,899) | (15,899) |
| Net block and other assets | 85,350 | 85,564 | 85,782 | 86,005 | 86,230 | 86,458 |
| Debt | 4,804 | 4,804 | 4,804 | 4,804 | 4,804 | 4,804 |
| Equity | 29,088 | 29,206 | 29,305 | 29,384 | 29,444 | 29,488 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,517 | 1,427 | 1,341 | 1,260 | 1,183 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,612) | (1,547) | (1,484) | (1,424) | (1,367) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (95) | (120) | (144) | (165) | (184) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (94) | (120) | (143) | (164) | (184) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(35) | (165.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.