Models
RELIANCE POWER LTD.RPOWERPower
₹-4per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(4)implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹21.65−118.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3161%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(9)₹6
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹20₹51
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,617 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,287 |
| Enterprise value | 11,904 |
| less net debt | (13,588) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (1,684) |
| ÷ 413.58 crore shares | ₹(4) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (3) | (1) | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 10.50% | (5) | (4) | (2) | 0 | 3 |
| 11.00% | (7) | (6) | (4) | (2) | (0) |
| 11.50% | (8) | (7) | (6) | (4) | (3) |
| 12.00% | (9) | (8) | (7) | (6) | (5) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹21.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (10) · (4) · 2 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,543 | 7,893 | 7,583 | 7,620 | 7,658 | 7,696 | 7,735 | 7,773 | 7,812 |
| growth % | 0.5 | 4.6 | (3.9) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,922 | 1,117 | 5,339 | 1,982 | 1,991 | 2,001 | 2,011 | 2,021 | 2,031 |
| margin % | 38.7 | 14.2 | 70.4 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| less depreciation | (1,033) | (1,062) | (910) | (829) | (835) | (839) | (843) | (847) | (852) |
| EBIT | 1,889 | 56 | 4,429 | 1,153 | 1,156 | 1,162 | 1,168 | 1,174 | 1,180 |
| less tax on EBIT | (290) | (291) | (293) | (294) | (295) | (297) | |||
| NOPAT | 862 | 865 | 870 | 874 | 878 | 883 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,033 | 1,062 | 910 | 829 | 835 | 839 | 843 | 847 | 852 |
| less capex | (384) | 0 | 0 | (116) | (115) | (338) | (564) | (792) | (1,022) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3,639 | 3,174 | 1,938 | — | 1,575 | 1,360 | 1,143 | 923 | 702 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,495 | 1,163 | 880 | 641 | 439 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14,812, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,153 | 1,156 | 1,162 | 1,168 | 1,174 | 1,180 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (1,644) | (1,644) | (1,644) | (1,644) | (1,644) | |
| Profit before tax | (488) | (482) | (476) | (470) | (465) | |
| Profit after tax | (337) | (365) | (361) | (356) | (352) | (348) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,224 | 1,569 | 1,698 | 1,610 | 1,303 | 775 |
| Working capital | 2,106 | 2,117 | 2,127 | 2,138 | 2,149 | 2,159 |
| Net block and other assets | 37,962 | 37,242 | 36,741 | 36,462 | 36,406 | 36,577 |
| Debt | 14,812 | 14,812 | 14,812 | 14,812 | 14,812 | 14,812 |
| Equity | 16,039 | 15,674 | 15,314 | 14,957 | 14,605 | 14,258 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 459 | 468 | 476 | 485 | 493 | |
| Investing (capex) | (115) | (338) | (564) | (792) | (1,022) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 344 | 129 | (88) | (307) | (529) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 344 | 129 | (88) | (307) | (529) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0.5% | 26% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(4) | (118.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.