₹80per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹80implied FY26 P/E 21.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹173.00−53.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹63₹115
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹117₹241
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 752 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,569 |
| Enterprise value | 2,321 |
| less net debt | (182) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,139 |
| ÷ 26.66 crore shares | ₹80 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 83 | 89 | 96 | 104 | 115 |
| 10.50% | 77 | 82 | 87 | 94 | 103 |
| 11.00% | 71 | 75 | 80 | 86 | 93 |
| 11.50% | 67 | 70 | 74 | 79 | 84 |
| 12.00% | 63 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 78 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹173.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 66 · 80 · 97 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 974 | 1,087 | 1,418 | 1,394 | 1,373 | 1,353 | 1,332 | 1,312 | 1,293 |
| growth % | (12.0) | 11.6 | 30.4 | (1.7) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 110 | 243 | 295 | 241 | 238 | 234 | 230 | 227 | 224 |
| margin % | 11.3 | 22.3 | 20.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| less depreciation | (69) | (66) | (70) | (71) | (70) | (69) | (68) | (67) | (66) |
| EBIT | 41 | 177 | 225 | 170 | 168 | 165 | 163 | 160 | 158 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 164 | 161 | 159 | 156 | 154 | 152 | |||
| add depreciation | 69 | 66 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 66 |
| less capex | (8) | (190) | (52) | (17) | (16) | (33) | (49) | (64) | (79) |
| less working-capital build | — | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 36 | 23 | — | 228 | 208 | 189 | 170 | 151 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 216 | 178 | 145 | 118 | 94 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 192, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 170 | 168 | 165 | 163 | 160 | 158 |
| Interest at 11.6% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 145 | 143 | 140 | 138 | 135 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 140 | 137 | 135 | 133 | 130 |
| Dividends | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 217 | 403 | 570 | 718 | 848 |
| Working capital | 891 | 877 | 864 | 851 | 838 | 826 |
| Net block and other assets | 953 | 899 | 863 | 844 | 841 | 854 |
| Debt | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 | 192 |
| Equity | 1,559 | 1,699 | 1,836 | 1,971 | 2,103 | 2,234 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 223 | 219 | 216 | 212 | 209 | |
| Investing (capex) | (16) | (33) | (49) | (64) | (79) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 207 | 187 | 167 | 148 | 130 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 207 | 187 | 167 | 148 | 130 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 17.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹80 | (53.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.