Models
RICO AUTO INDUSTRIES LTDRICOAUTOAuto Components
₹-1per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(1)implied FY26 P/E (0.4)× · EV/EBITDA 3.1×
Against CMP ₹134.01−100.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31130%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(20)₹37
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹79₹158
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (203) |
| PV of terminal value | 880 |
| Enterprise value | 677 |
| less net debt | (690) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (13) |
| ÷ 13.53 crore shares | ₹(1) |
130% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 37 |
| 10.50% | (5) | 0 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
| 11.00% | (11) | (6) | (1) | 5 | 13 |
| 11.50% | (16) | (12) | (7) | (2) | 4 |
| 12.00% | (20) | (16) | (13) | (8) | (3) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹134.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (32) · (2) · 30 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.30 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,302 | 2,160 | 2,212 | 2,478 | 2,775 | 3,108 | 3,481 | 3,899 | 4,367 |
| growth % | 23.8 | (6.2) | 2.4 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 220 | 219 | 187 | 215 | 241 | 270 | 303 | 339 | 380 |
| margin % | 9.6 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| less depreciation | (112) | (119) | (102) | (101) | (114) | (127) | (143) | (160) | (179) |
| EBIT | 109 | 101 | 86 | 114 | 128 | 143 | 160 | 179 | 201 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (31) | (35) | (39) | (44) | (49) | |||
| NOPAT | 86 | 96 | 108 | 121 | 135 | 151 | |||
| add depreciation | 112 | 119 | 102 | 101 | 114 | 127 | 143 | 160 | 179 |
| less capex | (200) | (171) | (159) | (296) | (330) | (316) | (293) | (260) | (215) |
| less working-capital build | — | (20) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (31) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (40) | 77 | 25 | — | (140) | (102) | (54) | 8 | 85 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (133) | (88) | (42) | 5 | 53 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 702, dividends at 14.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 114 | 128 | 143 | 160 | 179 | 201 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | |
| Profit before tax | 71 | 87 | 104 | 123 | 145 | |
| Profit after tax | 51 | 54 | 65 | 78 | 93 | 109 |
| Dividends | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | (177) | (331) | (438) | (486) | (459) |
| Working capital | 164 | 183 | 205 | 230 | 257 | 288 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,966 | 2,182 | 2,370 | 2,520 | 2,620 | 2,656 |
| Debt | 702 | 702 | 702 | 702 | 702 | 702 |
| Equity | 784 | 831 | 887 | 954 | 1,034 | 1,127 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 148 | 171 | 196 | 225 | 257 | |
| Investing (capex) | (330) | (316) | (293) | (260) | (215) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | (190) | (154) | (107) | (48) | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (182) | (145) | (96) | (35) | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 8.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(1) | (100.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.