Models
RITES LIMITEDRITESConstruction
₹141per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹141implied FY26 P/E 16.3× · EV/EBITDA 11.3×
Against CMP ₹209.65−32.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹112₹200
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹175₹281
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,515 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,725 |
| Enterprise value | 6,240 |
| less net debt | 557 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,797 |
| ÷ 48.06 crore shares | ₹141 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 146 | 155 | 167 | 182 | 200 |
| 10.50% | 135 | 144 | 153 | 165 | 179 |
| 11.00% | 127 | 133 | 141 | 151 | 162 |
| 11.50% | 119 | 125 | 132 | 139 | 149 |
| 12.00% | 112 | 117 | 123 | 130 | 137 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹209.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 118 · 140 · 168 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,628 | 2,453 | 2,218 | 2,415 | 2,632 | 2,869 | 3,128 | 3,409 | 3,716 |
| growth % | (1.3) | (6.7) | (9.6) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 825 | 650 | 515 | 554 | 603 | 657 | 716 | 781 | 851 |
| margin % | 31.4 | 26.5 | 23.2 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 |
| less depreciation | (146) | (61) | (62) | (66) | (71) | (77) | (84) | (92) | (100) |
| EBIT | 679 | 589 | 453 | 488 | 532 | 580 | 632 | 689 | 751 |
| less tax on EBIT | (126) | (137) | (150) | (163) | (178) | (194) | |||
| NOPAT | 362 | 395 | 430 | 469 | 511 | 557 | |||
| add depreciation | 146 | 61 | 62 | 66 | 71 | 77 | 84 | 92 | 100 |
| less capex | (136) | (137) | (133) | (62) | (68) | (79) | (91) | (105) | (120) |
| less working-capital build | — | (58) | (63) | (69) | (75) | (82) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 599 | (32) | 519 | — | 339 | 365 | 393 | 423 | 455 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 322 | 312 | 303 | 293 | 284 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 488 | 532 | 580 | 632 | 689 | 751 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 532 | 580 | 632 | 689 | 751 | |
| Profit after tax | 410 | 395 | 430 | 469 | 511 | 557 |
| Dividends | (418) | (395) | (430) | (469) | (511) | (557) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 557 | 502 | 437 | 361 | 273 | 171 |
| Working capital | 645 | 703 | 766 | 835 | 911 | 992 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,724 | 4,721 | 4,723 | 4,730 | 4,743 | 4,763 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,794 | 2,794 | 2,794 | 2,794 | 2,794 | 2,794 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 408 | 444 | 484 | 528 | 575 | |
| Investing (capex) | (68) | (79) | (91) | (105) | (120) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (395) | (430) | (469) | (511) | (557) | |
| Net change in cash | (55) | (65) | (76) | (88) | (102) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 339 | 365 | 393 | 423 | 455 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 22.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹141 | (32.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.