₹34per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹34implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹219.00−84.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(46)₹195
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹238
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 544 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,275 |
| Enterprise value | 1,819 |
| less net debt | (1,658) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 161 |
| ÷ 4.71 crore shares | ₹34 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 46 | 73 | 106 | 145 | 195 |
| 10.50% | 18 | 40 | 67 | 99 | 137 |
| 11.00% | (7) | 12 | 34 | 60 | 92 |
| 11.50% | (28) | (12) | 7 | 28 | 54 |
| 12.00% | (46) | (33) | (17) | 1 | 23 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹219.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (51) · 35 · 131 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,789 | 4,058 | 4,826 | 4,554 | 4,326 | 4,110 | 3,905 | 3,709 | 3,524 |
| growth % | (0.7) | 7.1 | 18.9 | (5.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 248 | 172 | 209 | 273 | 260 | 247 | 234 | 223 | 211 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| less depreciation | (127) | (153) | (161) | (154) | (147) | (140) | (133) | (126) | (120) |
| EBIT | 121 | 19 | 48 | 119 | 112 | 107 | 102 | 96 | 92 |
| less tax on EBIT | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |||
| NOPAT | 142 | 134 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 | |||
| add depreciation | 127 | 153 | 161 | 154 | 147 | 140 | 133 | 126 | 120 |
| less capex | (334) | (378) | (128) | (183) | (173) | (165) | (158) | (151) | (144) |
| less working-capital build | — | 46 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (245) | (454) | 298 | — | 154 | 146 | 138 | 130 | 123 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 146 | 125 | 106 | 90 | 77 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,664, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 119 | 112 | 107 | 102 | 96 | 92 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (125) | (125) | (125) | (125) | (125) | |
| Profit before tax | (12) | (18) | (23) | (28) | (33) | |
| Profit after tax | 52 | (15) | (21) | (28) | (34) | (39) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 11 | 8 | (3) | (21) | (47) |
| Working capital | 925 | 878 | 834 | 793 | 753 | 715 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,687 | 2,713 | 2,739 | 2,764 | 2,788 | 2,812 |
| Debt | 1,664 | 1,664 | 1,664 | 1,664 | 1,664 | 1,664 |
| Equity | 1,361 | 1,346 | 1,325 | 1,297 | 1,264 | 1,224 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 179 | 162 | 147 | 132 | 118 | |
| Investing (capex) | (173) | (165) | (158) | (151) | (144) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | (3) | (11) | (19) | (26) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 6 | (3) | (11) | (19) | (26) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹34 | (84.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.