RUBFILA INTERNATIONAL LTD — valuation model

RUBFILA INTERNATIONAL LTDRUBFILAIndustrial Products

₹43per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹43implied FY26 P/E 8.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×

Against CMP ₹69.00−37.4%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹34₹62

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹57₹89

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	48
PV of terminal value	176
Enterprise value	224
less net debt	10
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	234
÷ 5.43 crore shares	₹43

79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	45	48	52	56	62
10.50%	41	44	47	51	56
11.00%	38	41	43	46	50
11.50%	36	38	40	42	46
12.00%	34	35	37	39	42

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹69.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	30 · 43 · 56
Draws below the CMP	99%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.88
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.37
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.26

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	457	470	550	602	660	722	791	866	948
growth %	41.5	2.8	17.2	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5
EBITDA	37	36	45	40	44	48	53	58	64
margin %	8.2	7.7	8.1	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.7
less depreciation	(9)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(16)	(17)
EBIT	29	25	34	29	32	35	39	42	46
less tax on EBIT				(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)
NOPAT				21	23	25	28	30	33
add depreciation	9	11	11	11	12	13	14	16	17
less capex	(27)	(4)	(7)	(16)	(17)	(18)	(19)	(20)	(20)
less working-capital build				—	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)
Free cash flow to firm	3	24	18	—	9	11	12	15	17
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					8	9	10	10	11

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 39.7% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	29	32	35	39	42	46
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		32	35	39	42	46
Profit after tax	27	23	25	28	30	33
Dividends	(11)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	10	9	10	11	14	17
Working capital	95	104	113	124	136	149
Net block and other assets	275	281	285	290	294	298
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	310	324	340	357	375	395
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		26	29	31	34	37
Investing (capex)		(17)	(18)	(19)	(20)	(20)
Financing (dividends)		(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)
Net change in cash		(0)	0	1	2	4
Free cash flow to equity		9	11	12	15	17

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	9.5%	6.7%	11.00%	5%	₹43	(37.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.