Models
RUBICON RESEARCH LIMITEDRUBICONPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹212per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹212implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹1,839.40−88.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹158₹321
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹571₹1,899
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 535 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,052 |
| Enterprise value | 3,587 |
| less net debt | (74) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,513 |
| ÷ 16.54 crore shares | ₹212 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 220 | 238 | 261 | 288 | 321 |
| 10.50% | 201 | 216 | 234 | 256 | 282 |
| 11.00% | 185 | 197 | 212 | 230 | 251 |
| 11.50% | 170 | 181 | 194 | 209 | 226 |
| 12.00% | 158 | 167 | 178 | 191 | 205 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,839.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 167 · 211 · 262 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,754 | 1,894 | 2,046 | 2,209 | 2,386 | 2,577 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 400 | 432 | 466 | 504 | 544 | 588 |
| margin % | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 |
| less depreciation | (45) | (49) | (53) | (57) | (62) | (67) |
| EBIT | 355 | 383 | 413 | 446 | 482 | 521 |
| less tax on EBIT | (82) | (88) | (95) | (103) | (111) | (120) |
| NOPAT | 273 | 295 | 318 | 344 | 371 | 401 |
| add depreciation | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 |
| less capex | (229) | (248) | (217) | (179) | (134) | (80) |
| less working-capital build | — | (69) | (74) | (80) | (87) | (94) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 27 | 80 | 142 | 213 | 294 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 26 | 69 | 109 | 148 | 184 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 259, dividends at 0.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 355 | 383 | 413 | 446 | 482 | 521 |
| Interest at 16.3% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 340 | 371 | 404 | 440 | 478 | |
| Profit after tax | 247 | 262 | 286 | 311 | 339 | 368 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 186 | 180 | 227 | 336 | 516 | 777 |
| Working capital | 860 | 929 | 1,003 | 1,083 | 1,170 | 1,264 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,281 | 1,480 | 1,644 | 1,765 | 1,837 | 1,851 |
| Debt | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 |
| Equity | 1,289 | 1,551 | 1,836 | 2,147 | 2,485 | 2,853 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 243 | 265 | 288 | 314 | 342 | |
| Investing (capex) | (248) | (217) | (179) | (134) | (80) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (6) | 47 | 109 | 180 | 261 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6) | 48 | 109 | 180 | 261 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 22.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹212 | (88.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.