Models
RUCHIRA PAPERS LIMITEDRUCHIRAPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹-4per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(4)implied FY26 P/E (0.4)× · EV/EBITDA 2.1×
Against CMP ₹109.47−103.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31262%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(47)₹83
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹95₹173
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (276) |
| PV of terminal value | 447 |
| Enterprise value | 170 |
| less net debt | (183) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (13) |
| ÷ 2.98 crore shares | ₹(4) |
262% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1 | 15 | 33 | 55 | 83 |
| 10.50% | (14) | (2) | 13 | 30 | 52 |
| 11.00% | (27) | (16) | (4) | 10 | 27 |
| 11.50% | (38) | (29) | (18) | (6) | 8 |
| 12.00% | (47) | (39) | (31) | (20) | (9) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹109.47; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (36) · (4) · 35 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 803 | 658 | 659 | 649 | 639 | 629 | 620 | 611 | 602 |
| growth % | 31.0 | (18.1) | 0.2 | (1.6) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 109 | 82 | — | 81 | 80 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 75 |
| margin % | 13.6 | 12.4 | — | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (15) | — | (18) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 94 | 67 | — | 63 | 63 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 59 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (15) | |||
| NOPAT | 47 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 44 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 15 | — | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (38) | (28) | (36) | (236) | (233) | (177) | (123) | (70) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | 13 | 56 | — | (166) | (112) | (58) | (7) | 43 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (158) | (95) | (45) | (5) | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 183, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 63 | 63 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 59 |
| Interest at 4.6% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 51 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 37 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (172) | (290) | (354) | (368) | (331) |
| Working capital | 181 | 179 | 176 | 173 | 171 | 168 |
| Net block and other assets | 582 | 797 | 957 | 1,063 | 1,117 | 1,120 |
| Debt | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 |
| Equity | 495 | 535 | 575 | 613 | 652 | 689 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 60 | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | |
| Investing (capex) | (233) | (177) | (123) | (70) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (172) | (118) | (65) | (13) | 37 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (172) | (118) | (65) | (13) | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 12.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(4) | (103.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.