Models
RUNGTA IRRIGATION LTD.BSE 530449Industrial Products
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹49.70−25.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹26₹59
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹43₹69
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 26 |
| PV of terminal value | 74 |
| Enterprise value | 100 |
| less net debt | (26) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 74 |
| ÷ 1.99 crore shares | ₹37 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 39 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 59 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 38 | 41 | 46 | 51 |
| 11.00% | 31 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 45 |
| 11.50% | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 40 |
| 12.00% | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 35 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹49.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 30 · 37 · 45 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 130 | 149 | 219 | 181 | 172 | 164 | 155 | 148 | 140 |
| growth % | 85.2 | 14.3 | 47.4 | (17.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 6 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| margin % | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 4 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (4) | (5) | (3) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (7) | (18) | — | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Profit after tax | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 26 |
| Working capital | 90 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 69 |
| Net block and other assets | 63 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 |
| Debt | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Equity | 99 | 102 | 106 | 108 | 111 | 113 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 5.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (25.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.